TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088720
Played Sep 7Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81111611131513118
Artem Yurkov
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Artem Yurkov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 107 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 54.0%
107 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 55–87 Artem Yurkov Vitalii S Marushchak has won 55 of their 142 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:11What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Yurkov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-87 in 142
Yurkov
Wrong
gap of 32 in 142, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1703 vs Yurkov 1665
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 40% vs Yurkov 60%
Yurkov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 50% vs Yurkov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak +1 · Yurkov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marushchak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.91 / Yurkov 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marushchak)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13088720
Marushchak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 75 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back28% 25 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Yurkov1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 211 of 357
Up 2–0, closes it92% 83 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it74% 139 of 189
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarushchak4wins
AwayYurkov6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderYurkov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak66.7%4 of 6
AwayYurkov100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak6Yurkov4n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S2Marushchak5Yurkov5n = 10split evenly
S3Marushchak5Yurkov5n = 10split evenly
S4Marushchak4Yurkov1n = 5Marushchak took 4 of 5
S5Marushchak0Yurkov4n = 4Yurkov took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarushchakYurkovM − YBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.933.8+2.1per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakYurkovBasisWin rate · lifetime302 / 635 vs 589 / 98847.6%59.6%302 / 635 vs 589 / 988Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.91/Yurkov 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak—8460A. Yurkov—1111113
LSep 1 · 17:00V. Marushchak—11611972A. Yurkov—811411113
WAug 31 · 11:40V. Marushchak—1111113A. Yurkov—4730
WAug 28 · 15:40V. Marushchak—111110113A. Yurkov—881241
WAug 25 · 17:00V. Marushchak—1111113A. Yurkov—6860
WAug 24 · 14:10V. Marushchak—1111113A. Yurkov—7850
LAug 21 · 11:10V. Marushchak—12721182A. Yurkov—1011117113
LAug 18 · 15:00V. Marushchak—1011811102A. Yurkov—128113123
LAug 17 · 14:10V. Marushchak—4690A. Yurkov—1111113
LAug 11 · 17:00V. Marushchak—88111182A. Yurkov—111166113
V. Marushchak10
WSep 7 · 16:40A. Hrabskyi1.91581151V. Marushchak1.8011117113WSep 7 · 14:40V. Marushchak2.001111113P. Plakushchyi1.738670LSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123LSep 7 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.7361090A. Lievshin2.001112113LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133WSep 4 · 11:40V. Marushchak1.571111113V. Savoliuk2.259750LSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191
A. Yurkov10
WSep 7 · 13:40A. Hrabskyi2.20714101272A. Yurkov1.6111121210113WSep 7 · 12:40A. Yurkov1.3391111143P. Plakushchyi3.251188121LSep 7 · 11:40O. Kolbasenko2.10811139113A. Yurkov1.67116111102WSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113LSep 4 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.7351111113A. Yurkov2.00118861LSep 4 · 14:40A. Hrabskyi2.101116123A. Yurkov1.67614100WSep 4 · 12:40V. Savoliuk3.508111181A. Yurkov1.2811136113WSep 4 · 10:40V. Voronenko3.001175101A. Yurkov1.3621111123WSep 2 · 12:20O. Seliuchenko1.91971171A. Yurkov1.8011116113LSep 2 · 11:20A. Lievshin1.8011611113A. Yurkov1.91711961
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