TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088904
Played Sep 7Finished
Andrii Hrabskyi
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511811117511––
Vitalii S Marushchak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Hrabskyi above · Vitalii S Marushchak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Hrabskyi 36–29 Vitalii S Marushchak Vitalii S Marushchak has won 29 of their 65 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:59What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-29 in 65
Hrabskyi
Wrong
gap of 7 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrabskyi 1655 vs Marushchak 1712
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrabskyi 60% vs Marushchak 40%
Hrabskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrabskyi 50% vs Marushchak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrabskyi -2 · Marushchak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marushchak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrabskyi 1.91 / Marushchak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Marushchak)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13088904
Hrabskyi1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 117 of 284
Down 0–1, comes back26% 43 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 88
Marushchak1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 75 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it100% 43 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it81% 59 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrabskyi4wins
AwayMarushchak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrabskyi75%3 of 4
AwayMarushchak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrabskyi4Marushchak6n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S2Hrabskyi4Marushchak6n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S3Hrabskyi3Marushchak7n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S4Hrabskyi2Marushchak5n = 7Marushchak took 5 of 7
S5Hrabskyi3Marushchak0n = 3Hrabskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrabskyiMarushchakH − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.140.6−4.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrabskyiMarushchakBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 503 vs 303 / 63643.9%47.6%221 / 503 vs 303 / 636Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakHrabskyi 1.91/Marushchak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi—85110V. Marushchak—1111133
WSep 2 · 10:50A. Hrabskyi—915811113V. Marushchak—111311982
LSep 1 · 18:00A. Hrabskyi—1071241V. Marushchak—121110113
LAug 31 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi—1125121V. Marushchak—91111143
LAug 25 · 18:00A. Hrabskyi—961151V. Marushchak—11118113
WAug 24 · 17:10A. Hrabskyi—1111133V. Marushchak—54110
LAug 21 · 14:40A. Hrabskyi—7470V. Marushchak—1111113
LAug 18 · 17:00A. Hrabskyi—611871V. Marushchak—11811113
WAug 17 · 17:10A. Hrabskyi—11121011113V. Marushchak—91412982
WAug 11 · 14:00A. Hrabskyi—111179113V. Marushchak—87111162
A. Hrabskyi10
LSep 7 · 15:10A. Hrabskyi2.50971271O. Kolbasenko1.50111110113LSep 7 · 13:40A. Hrabskyi2.20714101272A. Yurkov1.6111121210113WSep 7 · 12:10A. Hrabskyi3.75138115113A. Lievshin1.25111181172WSep 7 · 10:40A. Hrabskyi1.73114411113P. Plakushchyi2.0071111892WSep 4 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.2591111782A. Hrabskyi1.57116711113WSep 4 · 15:40A. Hrabskyi1.611112113V. Savoliuk2.2091060WSep 4 · 14:40A. Hrabskyi2.101116123A. Yurkov1.67614100LSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133LSep 4 · 11:10A. Hrabskyi3.755511101A. Lievshin1.2511119123LSep 2 · 12:50A. Hrabskyi3.403560A. Lievshin1.301111113
V. Marushchak10
WSep 7 · 15:40V. Marushchak1.918111115113A. Yurkov1.80116131382WSep 7 · 14:40V. Marushchak2.001111113P. Plakushchyi1.738670LSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123LSep 7 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.7361090A. Lievshin2.001112113LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133WSep 4 · 11:40V. Marushchak1.571111113V. Savoliuk2.259750LSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191
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