TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078899
Played Sep 5Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117117––––
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:31 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Tymofeev to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Oleksandr Tymofeev below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Oleksandr Tymofeev at 63.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 14–24 Oleksandr Tymofeev Vasiliy Smyk has won 14 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:31What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tymofeev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-24 in 38
Tymofeev
Wrong
gap of 10 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1411 vs Tymofeev 1410
Smyk
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 80% vs Tymofeev 20%
Smyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 50% vs Tymofeev 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk +1 · Tymofeev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Tymofeev) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymofeev form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 2.50 / Tymofeev 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Tymofeev)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13078899
Smyk2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 94 of 230
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 70
Tymofeev1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 89 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it89% 64 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk5wins
AwayTymofeev5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk83.3%5 of 6
AwayTymofeev100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk6Tymofeev4n = 10Smyk took 6 of 10
S2Smyk6Tymofeev4n = 10Smyk took 6 of 10
S3Smyk4Tymofeev6n = 10Tymofeev took 6 of 10
S4Smyk3Tymofeev1n = 4Smyk took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykTymofeevS − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.131.1+3.0per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykTymofeevBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 641 vs 273 / 52842.6%51.7%273 / 641 vs 273 / 528Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TymofeevSmyk 2.50/Tymofeev 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Tymofeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk—1111113O. Tymofeev—6770
WAug 25 · 11:40V. Smyk—11113113O. Tymofeev—281151
LAug 15 · 14:30V. Smyk—56111192O. Tymofeev—111168113
WAug 13 · 17:00V. Smyk—1114123O. Tymofeev—212100
LAug 11 · 11:40V. Smyk—8990O. Tymofeev—1111113
LAug 8 · 14:30V. Smyk—6590O. Tymofeev—1111113
WAug 4 · 15:40V. Smyk—1111113O. Tymofeev—5580
LJul 12 · 10:50V. Smyk—11139962O. Tymofeev—7111111113
LApr 21 · 11:40V. Smyk—10860O. Tymofeev—1211113
WApr 19 · 08:20V. Smyk—11119113O. Tymofeev—371141
V. Smyk10
LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121LSep 5 · 14:30V. Smyk2.388118111D. Patalakha1.5311711133WSep 5 · 12:30V. Smyk2.501081112113S. Solomko1.50121161082WSep 2 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.83101112642V. Smyk1.831281011113
O. Tymofeev10
WSep 5 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.44111110113S. Solomko2.63771281WSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:00D. Patalakha3.50111149123O. Tymofeev1.28191111102LAug 30 · 12:50O. Tymofeev1.4071111872S. Solomko2.75116611113LAug 30 · 10:50D. Khairov1.73711127123O. Tymofeev2.001151011102LAug 30 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.801111113O. Tymofeev1.919980WAug 30 · 07:50O. Tymofeev2.2011119113E. Populovskyi1.61591171LAug 30 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.8061111123O. Tymofeev1.911189101WAug 29 · 19:00E. Populovskyi2.2078111132O. Tymofeev1.61111169113LAug 29 · 17:30O. Tymofeev1.80431171O. Osadchyi1.911111883
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