TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037891
Played Aug 29Finished
Eduard Populovskyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711811116119311
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:27 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingEduard Populovskyi above · Oleksandr Tymofeev below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 88 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 54.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Populovskyi 24–7 Oleksandr Tymofeev Oleksandr Tymofeev has won 7 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:27What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tymofeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-7 in 31
Populovskyi
Wrong
gap of 17 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Populovskyi 1409 vs Tymofeev 1486
Tymofeev
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Populovskyi 20% vs Tymofeev 60%
Tymofeev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Populovskyi 30% vs Tymofeev 50%
Tymofeev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Populovskyi -1 · Tymofeev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Tymofeev) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPopulovskyi 2.20 / Tymofeev 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Tymofeev)+0.5pp
Setka Cup · #13037891
Populovskyi2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 49 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 65
Tymofeev1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite72% won 88 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it92% 43 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it89% 63 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePopulovskyi9wins
AwayTymofeev1wins
7 of 10 to a deciderPopulovskyi leads 9–1, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePopulovskyi100%7 of 7
AwayTymofeev33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Populovskyi7Tymofeev3n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S2Populovskyi4Tymofeev6n = 10Tymofeev took 6 of 10
S3Populovskyi7Tymofeev3n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S4Populovskyi5Tymofeev3n = 8Populovskyi took 5 of 8
S5Populovskyi6Tymofeev1n = 7Populovskyi took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home660%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPopulovskyiTymofeevP − TBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match45.440.6+4.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPopulovskyiTymofeevBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 685 vs 274 / 53049.5%51.7%339 / 685 vs 274 / 530Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiPopulovskyi 2.20/Tymofeev 1.61
Miss
What we said
58.2%
Tymofeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 19:00E. Populovskyi—78111132O. Tymofeev—111169113
WAug 16 · 10:20E. Populovskyi—1111611113O. Tymofeev—61311992
WAug 15 · 15:30E. Populovskyi—911311113O. Tymofeev—11811992
WAug 9 · 07:20E. Populovskyi—1112123O. Tymofeev—910100
WAug 2 · 11:00E. Populovskyi—111198113O. Tymofeev—77111172
WJul 28 · 17:40E. Populovskyi—1361110113O. Tymofeev—111181272
WJul 19 · 06:20E. Populovskyi—1110119113O. Tymofeev—91231182
WApr 19 · 09:20E. Populovskyi—1181311113O. Tymofeev—131111962
WApr 18 · 16:50E. Populovskyi—1111113O. Tymofeev—1970
WMar 10 · 12:40E. Populovskyi—111111113O. Tymofeev—813371
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
O. Tymofeev10
WSep 5 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.44111110113S. Solomko2.63771281LSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:00D. Patalakha3.50111149123O. Tymofeev1.28191111102LAug 30 · 12:50O. Tymofeev1.4071111872S. Solomko2.75116611113LAug 30 · 10:50D. Khairov1.73711127123O. Tymofeev2.001151011102LAug 30 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.801111113O. Tymofeev1.919980WAug 30 · 07:50O. Tymofeev2.2011119113E. Populovskyi1.61591171LAug 30 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.8061111123O. Tymofeev1.911189101LAug 29 · 17:30O. Tymofeev1.80431171O. Osadchyi1.911111883
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