TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072879
Played Sep 4Finished
Anatolii Kovalenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911117117117––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnatolii Kovalenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Kovalenko 17–17 Eduard Populovskyi Dead even across their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Populovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-17 in 34
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1398 vs Populovskyi 1442
Populovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 20% vs Populovskyi 40%
Populovskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +1 · Populovskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Populovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.83 / Populovskyi 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Populovskyi)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13072879
Kovalenko1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Populovskyi1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko5wins
AwayPopulovskyi5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko80%4 of 5
AwayPopulovskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalenko5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalenko7Populovskyi3n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S4Kovalenko3Populovskyi2n = 5Kovalenko took 3 of 5
S5Kovalenko1Populovskyi3n = 4Populovskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoPopulovskyiK − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.2+1.3per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 506 vs 340 / 69453.4%49%270 / 506 vs 340 / 694Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiKovalenko 1.83/Populovskyi 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko—91111113E. Populovskyi—117771
LAug 31 · 11:35A. Kovalenko—101191182E. Populovskyi—129116113
WAug 17 · 10:35A. Kovalenko—1111116113E. Populovskyi—61341192
WAug 16 · 05:50A. Kovalenko—1112113E. Populovskyi—71080
LAug 10 · 09:20A. Kovalenko—731111102E. Populovskyi—111174123
WAug 7 · 05:00A. Kovalenko—1211123E. Populovskyi—108100
LAug 6 · 10:50A. Kovalenko—8940E. Populovskyi—1111113
WAug 1 · 15:00A. Kovalenko—1411113E. Populovskyi—12850
LJul 31 · 06:00A. Kovalenko—10530E. Populovskyi—1211113
LJul 29 · 09:35A. Kovalenko—11911892E. Populovskyi—911611113
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123WSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:05K. Klymenko1.73881111113A. Kovalenko2.0011118722WSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113WSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123LSep 3 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.251111913113A. Kovalenko1.57136111192
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133WSep 3 · 11:00D. Khairov1.734111031E. Populovskyi2.0011612113
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