TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084237
Played Sep 6Finished
Eduard Populovskyi
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118711911711––
Serhii Solomko
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Solomko to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEduard Populovskyi above · Serhii Solomko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Serhii Solomko at 73.3%
75 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Populovskyi 8–24 Serhii Solomko Eduard Populovskyi has won 8 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:30What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Solomko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-24 in 32
Solomko
Correct
gap of 16 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Populovskyi 1447 vs Solomko 1510
Solomko
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Populovskyi 80% vs Solomko 20%
Populovskyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Populovskyi 50% vs Solomko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Populovskyi +3 · Solomko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Solomko) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Solomko form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPopulovskyi 3.25 / Solomko 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Solomko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084237
Populovskyi3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 55 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back20% 21 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 73
Solomko1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 131 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it92% 65 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it80% 93 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePopulovskyi3wins
AwaySolomko7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSolomko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePopulovskyi33.3%1 of 3
AwaySolomko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Populovskyi3Solomko7n = 10Solomko took 7 of 10
S2Populovskyi1Solomko9n = 10Solomko took 9 of 10
S3Populovskyi3Solomko7n = 10Solomko took 7 of 10
S4Populovskyi3Solomko2n = 5Populovskyi took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricPopulovskyiSolomkoP − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.636.5−6.9per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPopulovskyiSolomkoBasisWin rate · lifetime340 / 694 vs 524 / 102549%51.1%340 / 694 vs 524 / 1025Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SolomkoPopulovskyi 3.25/Solomko 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Solomko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Solomko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi—117971S. Solomko—81111113
LSep 3 · 10:00E. Populovskyi—3840S. Solomko—1111113
LSep 2 · 10:35E. Populovskyi—7980S. Solomko—1111113
LAug 31 · 10:35E. Populovskyi—7390S. Solomko—1111113
LAug 30 · 11:20E. Populovskyi—101140S. Solomko—1213113
WAug 29 · 15:00E. Populovskyi—5121412113S. Solomko—1114121092
LAug 23 · 11:20E. Populovskyi—5330S. Solomko—1111113
WAug 22 · 17:30E. Populovskyi—11811113S. Solomko—411831
LAug 17 · 05:35E. Populovskyi—1111471S. Solomko—61311113
WAug 2 · 10:00E. Populovskyi—61111123S. Solomko—1148101
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133WSep 3 · 11:00D. Khairov1.734111031E. Populovskyi2.0011612113
S. Solomko10
LSep 7 · 06:30S. Solomko2.009880O. Volynets1.731111113LSep 7 · 05:30D. Khairov1.502011113S. Solomko2.5018880WSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393WSep 6 · 11:20S. Solomko1.251211113M. Stetsenko3.7510670LSep 6 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.91611611153S. Solomko1.80111118132WSep 6 · 07:20D. Patalakha1.73119391S. Solomko2.0071111113LSep 5 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.44111110113S. Solomko2.63771281LSep 5 · 17:30S. Solomko1.919790F. Voinarovskyi1.801111113LSep 5 · 15:30D. Patalakha1.8311112S. Solomko1.83690WSep 5 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.831112651S. Solomko1.83131011113
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