TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072978
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Mytsyk
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911811811––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Mytsyk above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mytsyk 36–41 Eduard Populovskyi Oleksandr Mytsyk has won 36 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:50What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-41 in 77
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 5 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mytsyk 1329 vs Populovskyi 1422
Populovskyi
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mytsyk 40% vs Populovskyi 60%
Populovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mytsyk 30% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mytsyk +1 · Populovskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Populovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mytsyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMytsyk 1.91 / Populovskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Populovskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13072978
Mytsyk1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog37% won 64 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Populovskyi1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 100 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it84% 75 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMytsyk4wins
AwayPopulovskyi6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPopulovskyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMytsyk66.7%4 of 6
AwayPopulovskyi100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mytsyk6Populovskyi4n = 10Mytsyk took 6 of 10
S2Mytsyk7Populovskyi3n = 10Mytsyk took 7 of 10
S3Mytsyk3Populovskyi7n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S4Mytsyk4Populovskyi4n = 8split evenly
S5Mytsyk0Populovskyi3n = 3Populovskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMytsykPopulovskyiM − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.638.2+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMytsykPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime533 / 1072 vs 342 / 69749.7%49.1%533 / 1072 vs 342 / 697Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiMytsyk 1.91/Populovskyi 1.80
Hit
What we said
54%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 22 · 08:05O. Mytsyk—1111981E. Populovskyi—13911113
WJul 12 · 15:30O. Mytsyk—16118113E. Populovskyi—1431171
LJul 9 · 10:50O. Mytsyk—113591E. Populovskyi—21111113
LJun 22 · 12:20O. Mytsyk—811131142E. Populovskyi—119157113
LJun 21 · 17:50O. Mytsyk—77100E. Populovskyi—1111123
WJun 5 · 08:05O. Mytsyk—11117113E. Populovskyi—781191
LMay 30 · 19:50O. Mytsyk—1111101082E. Populovskyi—981212113
WMay 24 · 07:50O. Mytsyk—11811113E. Populovskyi—411611
LMay 23 · 21:50O. Mytsyk—81211342E. Populovskyi—1110411113
WMay 10 · 11:20O. Mytsyk—1111113E. Populovskyi—8980
O. Mytsyk10
WSep 7 · 06:50O. Mytsyk1.67212713123V. Melnykov2.1011101111102LSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541WSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov2.25111410482O. Mytsyk1.579121211113LSep 4 · 06:35M. Stetsenko1.4411714113O. Mytsyk2.636111241LSep 4 · 05:35K. Klymenko1.611111113O. Mytsyk2.209870WSep 3 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.251111913113A. Kovalenko1.57136111192LSep 3 · 10:50K. Klymenko1.6751117113O. Mytsyk2.101121581LSep 3 · 08:50M. Stetsenko1.5011119113O. Mytsyk2.50951151WSep 3 · 07:50O. Mytsyk2.001011811113O. Ovsiienko1.7312711262LSep 3 · 06:50O. Leonenko2.631111113O. Mytsyk1.449680
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133WSep 3 · 11:00D. Khairov1.734111031E. Populovskyi2.0011612113
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