TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072909
Played Sep 4Finished
Maksym Stetsenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1167111412114––
Oleksandr Mytsyk
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:30 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Stetsenko above · Oleksandr Mytsyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 76 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 66.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Stetsenko 21–5 Oleksandr Mytsyk Oleksandr Mytsyk has won 5 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Stetsenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-5 in 26
Stetsenko
Correct
gap of 16 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stetsenko 1338 vs Mytsyk 1310
Stetsenko
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stetsenko 40% vs Mytsyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stetsenko 50% vs Mytsyk 30%
Stetsenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stetsenko -3 · Mytsyk -1
Stetsenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Stetsenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stetsenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStetsenko 1.44 / Mytsyk 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Stetsenko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13072909
Stetsenko1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 124 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it99% 74 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it89% 98 of 110
Mytsyk2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog36% won 63 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStetsenko8wins
AwayMytsyk2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStetsenko87.5%7 of 8
AwayMytsykn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stetsenko8Mytsyk2n = 10Stetsenko took 8 of 10
S2Stetsenko7Mytsyk3n = 10Stetsenko took 7 of 10
S3Stetsenko4Mytsyk6n = 10Mytsyk took 6 of 10
S4Stetsenko6Mytsyk2n = 8Stetsenko took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStetsenkoMytsykS − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.134.2+5.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStetsenkoMytsykBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 836 vs 532 / 107352.2%49.6%436 / 836 vs 532 / 1073Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoStetsenko 1.44/Mytsyk 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stetsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 06:35M. Stetsenko—11714113O. Mytsyk—6111241
WSep 3 · 08:50M. Stetsenko—11119113O. Mytsyk—951151
WSep 2 · 13:30M. Stetsenko—11139133O. Mytsyk—81111111
LAug 31 · 12:20M. Stetsenko—116111012O. Mytsyk—311112113
WAug 26 · 12:00M. Stetsenko—81113123O. Mytsyk—11711101
WAug 23 · 11:10M. Stetsenko—111111113O. Mytsyk—851351
WAug 20 · 12:20M. Stetsenko—111139113O. Mytsyk—76111152
LAug 19 · 13:00M. Stetsenko—8690O. Mytsyk—1111113
WAug 17 · 10:50M. Stetsenko—11114113O. Mytsyk—671161
WAug 16 · 12:00M. Stetsenko—1111163O. Mytsyk—67140
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 7 · 05:50V. Korniichuk2.7511470M. Stetsenko1.401311113WSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.571171091M. Stetsenko2.2511112113LSep 6 · 11:20S. Solomko1.251211113M. Stetsenko3.7510670LSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 05:50D. Patalakha1.61781171M. Stetsenko2.2011114113LSep 4 · 11:05M. Stetsenko2.6368120K. Klymenko1.441111143LSep 4 · 09:35M. Stetsenko1.73611831V. Melnykov2.0011311113LSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113LSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
O. Mytsyk10
WSep 7 · 06:50O. Mytsyk1.67212713123V. Melnykov2.1011101111102LSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov2.25111410482O. Mytsyk1.579121211113LSep 4 · 05:35K. Klymenko1.611111113O. Mytsyk2.209870WSep 3 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.251111913113A. Kovalenko1.57136111192LSep 3 · 10:50K. Klymenko1.6751117113O. Mytsyk2.101121581LSep 3 · 08:50M. Stetsenko1.5011119113O. Mytsyk2.50951151WSep 3 · 07:50O. Mytsyk2.001011811113O. Ovsiienko1.7312711262LSep 3 · 06:50O. Leonenko2.631111113O. Mytsyk1.449680
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