TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072972
Played Sep 4Finished
Maksym Stetsenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611113811311––
Volodymyr Melnykov
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaksym Stetsenko above · Volodymyr Melnykov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 64 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 54.9%
64 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Stetsenko 7–7 Volodymyr Melnykov Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:53What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stetsenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stetsenko 1350 vs Melnykov 1355
Melnykov
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stetsenko 20% vs Melnykov 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stetsenko 40% vs Melnykov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stetsenko -1 · Melnykov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Stetsenko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnykov form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStetsenko 1.73 / Melnykov 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Stetsenko)+1.8pp
Setka Cup · #13072972
Stetsenko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 130 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it99% 75 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it89% 101 of 113
Melnykov2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 61 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back25% 25 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back15% 9 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStetsenko6wins
AwayMelnykov4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStetsenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayMelnykov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stetsenko6Melnykov4n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S2Stetsenko7Melnykov3n = 10Stetsenko took 7 of 10
S3Stetsenko5Melnykov5n = 10split evenly
S4Stetsenko2Melnykov5n = 7Melnykov took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStetsenkoMelnykovS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.635.3+2.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStetsenkoMelnykovBasisWin rate · lifetime437 / 836 vs 246 / 54052.3%45.6%437 / 836 vs 246 / 540Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoStetsenko 1.73/Melnykov 2.00
Miss
What we said
55.5%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Melnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 09:35M. Stetsenko—611831V. Melnykov—11311113
WAug 26 · 16:00M. Stetsenko—176511113V. Melnykov—151111892
LAug 24 · 12:50M. Stetsenko—6111161V. Melnykov—11313113
LAug 7 · 07:30M. Stetsenko—114681V. Melnykov—11111113
WAug 3 · 07:20M. Stetsenko—1111133V. Melnykov—69110
WJul 31 · 11:00M. Stetsenko—1111113V. Melnykov—9580
WJul 27 · 11:20M. Stetsenko—811119123V. Melnykov—111511102
WJul 26 · 14:00M. Stetsenko—111311113V. Melnykov—1311771
LJul 19 · 18:00M. Stetsenko—118851V. Melnykov—71111113
WJul 15 · 04:30M. Stetsenko—1116113V. Melnykov—51480
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 7 · 05:50V. Korniichuk2.7511470M. Stetsenko1.401311113WSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.571171091M. Stetsenko2.2511112113LSep 6 · 11:20S. Solomko1.251211113M. Stetsenko3.7510670LSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 05:50D. Patalakha1.61781171M. Stetsenko2.2011114113LSep 4 · 11:05M. Stetsenko2.6368120K. Klymenko1.441111143LSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113WSep 4 · 06:35M. Stetsenko1.4411714113O. Mytsyk2.636111241LSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
V. Melnykov10
LSep 7 · 06:50O. Mytsyk1.67212713123V. Melnykov2.1011101111102LSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113LSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov2.25111410482O. Mytsyk1.579121211113WSep 4 · 07:35K. Klymenko3.2581311472V. Melnykov1.331111811113LSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123LAug 27 · 11:30O. Ovsiienko1.731111113V. Melnykov2.006990LAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123WAug 27 · 08:00O. Mytsyk1.61118121342V. Melnykov2.208111015113WAug 27 · 06:00V. Mukhin3.50761151V. Melnykov1.2811116113WAug 27 · 05:00K. Klymenko3.2581120V. Melnykov1.331111143
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