TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022690
Played Aug 27Finished
Volodymyr Melnykov
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121183111191012
Vasily Kondratenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:50 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeVasily Kondratenko to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Melnykov above · Vasily Kondratenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 97 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Vasily Kondratenko at 57.1%
97 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Melnykov 11–22 Vasily Kondratenko Volodymyr Melnykov has won 11 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:50What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kondratenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-22 in 33
Kondratenko
Correct
gap of 11 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnykov 1378 vs Kondratenko 1271
Melnykov
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnykov 80% vs Kondratenko 20%
Melnykov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnykov 50% vs Kondratenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnykov +3 · Kondratenko -2
Melnykov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kondratenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kondratenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnykov 1.91 / Kondratenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kondratenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13022690
Melnykov1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 61 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back25% 25 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back15% 9 of 61
Kondratenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 85 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it83% 59 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnykov2wins
AwayKondratenko8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKondratenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnykov33.3%2 of 6
AwayKondratenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnykov6Kondratenko4n = 10Melnykov took 6 of 10
S2Melnykov2Kondratenko8n = 10Kondratenko took 8 of 10
S3Melnykov6Kondratenko4n = 10Melnykov took 6 of 10
S4Melnykov1Kondratenko5n = 6Kondratenko took 5 of 6
S5Melnykov0Kondratenko3n = 3Kondratenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnykovKondratenkoM − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.437.3−3.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykovKondratenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 554 vs 269 / 59545.5%45.2%252 / 554 vs 269 / 595Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KondratenkoMelnykov 1.91/Kondratenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kondratenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kondratenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 15 · 06:30V. Melnykov—1311113V. Kondratenko—11340
LJun 28 · 12:00V. Melnykov—781191V. Kondratenko—11116113
LJun 25 · 05:50V. Melnykov—8960V. Kondratenko—1111113
LJun 24 · 18:50V. Melnykov—7101181V. Kondratenko—11129113
LAug 29 · 08:00V. Melnykov—12311242V. Kondratenko—10111110113
WAug 28 · 05:00V. Melnykov—1111113V. Kondratenko—3570
LAug 21 · 11:30V. Melnykov—113111072V. Kondratenko—511712113
LAug 8 · 07:30V. Melnykov—111011992V. Kondratenko—712911113
LAug 5 · 08:00V. Melnykov—9550V. Kondratenko—1111113
LAug 1 · 08:00V. Melnykov—129441V. Kondratenko—101111113
V. Melnykov10
LSep 7 · 06:50O. Mytsyk1.67212713123V. Melnykov2.1011101111102LSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 09:35M. Stetsenko1.73611831V. Melnykov2.0011311113LSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov2.25111410482O. Mytsyk1.579121211113WSep 4 · 07:35K. Klymenko3.2581311472V. Melnykov1.331111811113LSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123LAug 27 · 11:30O. Ovsiienko1.731111113V. Melnykov2.006990WAug 27 · 08:00O. Mytsyk1.61118121342V. Melnykov2.208111015113WAug 27 · 06:00V. Mukhin3.50761151V. Melnykov1.2811116113WAug 27 · 05:00K. Klymenko3.2581120V. Melnykov1.331111143
V. Kondratenko10
LAug 28 · 09:35K. Klymenko1.509101111113V. Kondratenko2.5011127482LAug 28 · 08:35V. Kondratenko2.00813100S. Skhabitskiy1.731115123LAug 28 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.2071111113V. Kondratenko1.61116481LAug 28 · 06:05V. Kondratenko2.20116691O. Mytsyk1.6181111113LAug 27 · 11:00O. Mytsyk1.67511119113V. Kondratenko2.1011261172LAug 27 · 08:30K. Klymenko1.5311119113V. Kondratenko2.38991181LAug 27 · 06:30O. Ovsiienko1.5791111113V. Kondratenko2.25116561WAug 27 · 04:30V. Mukhin2.508115101V. Kondratenko1.5011711123LAug 24 · 11:35V. Kondratenko2.508121321M. Khalenko1.50111411113LAug 24 · 09:35V. Korniichuk2.001111113V. Kondratenko1.736470
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