TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022640
Played Aug 27Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111175111012––
Vasily Kondratenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeVasily Kondratenko to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Vasily Kondratenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Vasily Kondratenko at 64.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 2–8 Vasily Kondratenko Vitalii Mukhin has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:39What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kondratenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Kondratenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1242 vs Kondratenko 1279
Kondratenko
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 40% vs Kondratenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 60% vs Kondratenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin -1 · Kondratenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kondratenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kondratenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 2.50 / Kondratenko 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kondratenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13022640
Mukhin2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 19 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Kondratenko1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 85 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it83% 59 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin2wins
AwayKondratenko8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKondratenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKondratenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin2Kondratenko8n = 10Kondratenko took 8 of 10
S2Mukhin4Kondratenko6n = 10Kondratenko took 6 of 10
S3Mukhin4Kondratenko6n = 10Kondratenko took 6 of 10
S4Mukhin4Kondratenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Mukhin1Kondratenko3n = 4Kondratenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinKondratenkoM − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.742.3−5.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinKondratenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 275 vs 268 / 59250.6%45.3%139 / 275 vs 268 / 592Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KondratenkoMukhin 2.50/Kondratenko 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Kondratenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kondratenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 07:30V. Mukhin—811681V. Kondratenko—11911113
LAug 6 · 09:00V. Mukhin—91151192V. Kondratenko—119115113
LJul 13 · 07:30V. Mukhin—591251V. Kondratenko—111110113
WJul 9 · 08:05V. Mukhin—11611113V. Kondratenko—911741
LJun 8 · 10:30V. Mukhin—7870V. Kondratenko—1111113
WJun 4 · 11:05V. Mukhin—991111123V. Kondratenko—111165102
LMay 9 · 10:30V. Mukhin—11871162V. Kondratenko—811119113
LMay 7 · 16:20V. Mukhin—111411522V. Kondratenko—1312811113
LApr 30 · 16:20V. Mukhin—9950V. Kondratenko—1111113
LApr 23 · 16:20V. Mukhin—4116151V. Kondratenko—11711173
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591
V. Kondratenko10
LAug 28 · 09:35K. Klymenko1.509101111113V. Kondratenko2.5011127482LAug 28 · 08:35V. Kondratenko2.00813100S. Skhabitskiy1.731115123LAug 28 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.2071111113V. Kondratenko1.61116481LAug 28 · 06:05V. Kondratenko2.20116691O. Mytsyk1.6181111113LAug 27 · 11:00O. Mytsyk1.67511119113V. Kondratenko2.1011261172WAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123LAug 27 · 08:30K. Klymenko1.5311119113V. Kondratenko2.38991181LAug 27 · 06:30O. Ovsiienko1.5791111113V. Kondratenko2.25116561LAug 24 · 11:35V. Kondratenko2.508121321M. Khalenko1.50111411113LAug 24 · 09:35V. Korniichuk2.001111113V. Kondratenko1.736470
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