TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482109
Played Aug 24Finished
Vasily Kondratenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81112141311211––
Mykhailo Khalenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Khalenko to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Kondratenko above · Mykhailo Khalenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 82 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Mykhailo Khalenko at 64.5%
82 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Kondratenko 5–5 Mykhailo Khalenko Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:06What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Khalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kondratenko 1289 vs Khalenko 1324
Khalenko
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kondratenko 60% vs Khalenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kondratenko 60% vs Khalenko 30%
Kondratenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kondratenko -1 · Khalenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Khalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kondratenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKondratenko 2.50 / Khalenko 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Khalenko)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482109
Kondratenko2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 32 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Khalenko1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite78% won 42 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKondratenko5wins
AwayKhalenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKondratenko100%4 of 4
AwayKhalenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kondratenko4Khalenko6n = 10Khalenko took 6 of 10
S2Kondratenko5Khalenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kondratenko5Khalenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kondratenko3Khalenko0n = 3Kondratenko took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKondratenkoKhalenkoKondratenko − KhalenkoBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.133.9+0.2per matchSweeps34−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKondratenkoKhalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 602 vs 179 / 36345.4%49.3%273 / 602 vs 179 / 363Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhalenkoKondratenko 2.50/Khalenko 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Khalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 08:35V. Kondratenko—86100M. Khalenko—1111123
LAug 19 · 11:30V. Kondratenko—88100M. Khalenko—1111123
LJul 28 · 08:30V. Kondratenko—15720M. Khalenko—1711113
WJul 27 · 06:00V. Kondratenko—131111113M. Khalenko—1113971
LJul 24 · 11:30V. Kondratenko—11170M. Khalenko—1311113
WJul 15 · 05:30V. Kondratenko—81111113M. Khalenko—117561
LJul 9 · 07:05V. Kondratenko—1211151172M. Khalenko—144179113
WJul 2 · 10:35V. Kondratenko—1315113M. Khalenko—111370
WJun 29 · 10:35V. Kondratenko—1111113M. Khalenko—8380
WMay 9 · 08:30V. Kondratenko—1111113M. Khalenko—9950
V. Kondratenko10
LAug 28 · 09:35K. Klymenko1.509101111113V. Kondratenko2.5011127482LAug 28 · 08:35V. Kondratenko2.00813100S. Skhabitskiy1.731115123LAug 28 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.2071111113V. Kondratenko1.61116481LAug 28 · 06:05V. Kondratenko2.20116691O. Mytsyk1.6181111113LAug 27 · 11:00O. Mytsyk1.67511119113V. Kondratenko2.1011261172WAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123LAug 27 · 08:30K. Klymenko1.5311119113V. Kondratenko2.38991181LAug 27 · 06:30O. Ovsiienko1.5791111113V. Kondratenko2.25116561WAug 27 · 04:30V. Mukhin2.508115101V. Kondratenko1.5011711123LAug 24 · 09:35V. Korniichuk2.001111113V. Kondratenko1.736470
M. Khalenko10
WSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 15:30S. Yakimenko1.8311611552M. Khalenko1.83711911113LSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151LSep 4 · 12:30Y. Korotin1.831111113M. Khalenko1.835690WSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113WSep 3 · 10:35S. Semenets2.20512761M. Khalenko1.61111011113LSep 3 · 09:05V. Korniichuk1.281111113M. Khalenko3.509970WSep 3 · 07:05S. Osipov2.7511811842M. Khalenko1.40811811113WSep 3 · 05:05D. Khavanskyi1.446260M. Khalenko2.631111113
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