TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072961
Played Sep 4Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151412711115––
Mykhailo Khalenko
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Khalenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Mykhailo Khalenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 76 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Mykhailo Khalenko at 58.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 12–14 Mykhailo Khalenko Vitalii Mukhin has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Khalenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-14 in 26
Khalenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1265 vs Khalenko 1276
Khalenko
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 80% vs Khalenko 60%
Mukhin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 70% vs Khalenko 50%
Mukhin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +2 · Khalenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Khalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mukhin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 2.38 / Khalenko 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Khalenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13072961
Mukhin2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 20 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Khalenko1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite79% won 46 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin3wins
AwayKhalenko7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKhalenko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin50%2 of 4
AwayKhalenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin4Khalenko6n = 10Khalenko took 6 of 10
S2Mukhin6Khalenko4n = 10Mukhin took 6 of 10
S3Mukhin7Khalenko3n = 10Mukhin took 7 of 10
S4Mukhin4Khalenko6n = 10Khalenko took 6 of 10
S5Mukhin0Khalenko5n = 5Khalenko took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinKhalenkoM − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.240.9+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinKhalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 292 vs 185 / 37050.7%50%148 / 292 vs 185 / 370Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhalenkoMukhin 2.38/Khalenko 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Khalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin—11147113M. Khalenko—5121151
LAug 19 · 06:00V. Mukhin—11115822M. Khalenko—671111113
LAug 18 · 06:00V. Mukhin—611112112M. Khalenko—116611133
LAug 16 · 05:05V. Mukhin—811117102M. Khalenko—119511123
LJul 20 · 04:30V. Mukhin—971111102M. Khalenko—111199123
LJul 11 · 04:30V. Mukhin—681151M. Khalenko—11118113
WJul 9 · 05:05V. Mukhin—11118113M. Khalenko—461151
LJul 8 · 12:00V. Mukhin—781161M. Khalenko—11118113
WJul 5 · 05:50V. Mukhin—81111113M. Khalenko—115841
LJun 30 · 04:30V. Mukhin—119118132M. Khalenko—811211153
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591WAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050
M. Khalenko10
WSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 15:30S. Yakimenko1.8311611552M. Khalenko1.83711911113LSep 4 · 12:30Y. Korotin1.831111113M. Khalenko1.835690WSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113WSep 3 · 10:35S. Semenets2.20512761M. Khalenko1.61111011113LSep 3 · 09:05V. Korniichuk1.281111113M. Khalenko3.509970WSep 3 · 07:05S. Osipov2.7511811842M. Khalenko1.40811811113WSep 3 · 05:05D. Khavanskyi1.446260M. Khalenko2.631111113LAug 31 · 11:50K. Klymenko1.441111113M. Khalenko2.636630
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