TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043920
Played Aug 30Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.22
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1111210115––––
Oleh Ponomarenko
Away
4.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Oleh Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 50 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 78.6%
50 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 19–5 Oleh Ponomarenko Oleh Ponomarenko has won 5 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Mukhin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-5 in 24
Mukhin
Correct
gap of 14 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1238 vs Ponomarenko 1024
Mukhin
Correct
both rated, 214 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 80% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Mukhin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 60% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Mukhin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin -1 · Ponomarenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Mukhin) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.22 / Ponomarenko 4.00
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Mukhin)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13043920
Mukhin1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 90 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it78% 66 of 85
Ponomarenko4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 48 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin9wins
AwayPonomarenko1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMukhin leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin85.7%6 of 7
AwayPonomarenko0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin7Ponomarenko3n = 10Mukhin took 7 of 10
S2Mukhin7Ponomarenko3n = 10Mukhin took 7 of 10
S3Mukhin5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Mukhin7Ponomarenko1n = 8Mukhin took 7 of 8
S5Mukhin3Ponomarenko1n = 4Mukhin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinPonomarenkoM − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.835.8+8.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 290 vs 304 / 65650.3%46.3%146 / 290 vs 304 / 656Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.435.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.22/Ponomarenko 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.9%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin—1112113O. Ponomarenko—11050
WAug 29 · 05:50V. Mukhin—6111110113O. Ponomarenko—11741212
WAug 2 · 08:50V. Mukhin—11915123O. Ponomarenko—51113101
WJul 31 · 12:00V. Mukhin—1313911113O. Ponomarenko—151111982
WJul 11 · 10:30V. Mukhin—11119123O. Ponomarenko—6611101
WJul 5 · 11:50V. Mukhin—761111113O. Ponomarenko—11117772
WJul 4 · 11:05V. Mukhin—11116113O. Ponomarenko—991181
WJun 30 · 10:30V. Mukhin—13119113O. Ponomarenko—1151131
WJun 24 · 13:40V. Mukhin—1111113O. Ponomarenko—9960
LMar 23 · 05:30V. Mukhin—115111182O. Ponomarenko—711135113
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591
O. Ponomarenko10
WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123LAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172LAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830LAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets1.408101111113O. Ponomarenko2.7511122882LAug 29 · 05:50V. Mukhin1.306111110113O. Ponomarenko3.4011741212LAug 26 · 11:30O. Ponomarenko2.385550S. Semenets1.531111113
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