TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037575
Played Aug 29Finished
Serhii Semenets
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111012112118118
Oleh Ponomarenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Semenets above · Oleh Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Semenets at 66.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Semenets 27–12 Oleh Ponomarenko Oleh Ponomarenko has won 12 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:07What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Semenets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-12 in 39
Semenets
Correct
gap of 15 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semenets 1300 vs Ponomarenko 1024
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 275 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semenets 80% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Semenets
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semenets 70% vs Ponomarenko 30%
Semenets
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semenets +2 · Ponomarenko -3
Ponomarenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Semenets) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemenets 1.40 / Ponomarenko 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Semenets)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13037575
Semenets1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 101 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it93% 53 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it76% 77 of 102
Ponomarenko2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 48 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemenets9wins
AwayPonomarenko1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSemenets leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemenets100%7 of 7
AwayPonomarenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semenets7Ponomarenko3n = 10Semenets took 7 of 10
S2Semenets5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Semenets9Ponomarenko1n = 10Semenets took 9 of 10
S4Semenets5Ponomarenko0n = 5Semenets took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemenetsPonomarenkoS − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.028.1+9.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemenetsPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 825 vs 303 / 65450.4%46.3%416 / 825 vs 303 / 654Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.135.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsSemenets 1.40/Ponomarenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 05:35S. Semenets—1211113O. Ponomarenko—10330
WAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets—8101111113O. Ponomarenko—11122882
WAug 26 · 11:30S. Semenets—1111113O. Ponomarenko—5550
WAug 9 · 09:35S. Semenets—1512113O. Ponomarenko—131050
WAug 2 · 12:50S. Semenets—1111113O. Ponomarenko—7890
WJul 28 · 11:30S. Semenets—111111123O. Ponomarenko—6139101
WJul 25 · 04:30S. Semenets—71111113O. Ponomarenko—119291
WJul 22 · 18:00S. Semenets—11911113O. Ponomarenko—211691
WJul 19 · 11:05S. Semenets—11611113O. Ponomarenko—611721
LJul 15 · 12:00S. Semenets—61090O. Ponomarenko—1112113
S. Semenets10
LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113WSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121LSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112
O. Ponomarenko10
LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123LAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172LAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830LAug 29 · 05:50V. Mukhin1.306111110113O. Ponomarenko3.4011741212LAug 26 · 11:30O. Ponomarenko2.385550S. Semenets1.531111113
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