TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037692
Played Aug 29Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11911131166111012
Oleh Ponomarenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:03 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Stukalov to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Oleh Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 100 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Vladyslav Stukalov at 60.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 60–40 Oleh Ponomarenko Oleh Ponomarenko has won 40 of their 100 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:03What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Stukalov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
60-40 in 100
Stukalov
Wrong
gap of 20 in 100, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1250 vs Ponomarenko 1054
Stukalov
Wrong
both rated, 196 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 60% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Stukalov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 50% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Stukalov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov +1 · Ponomarenko -4
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Stukalov) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 1.44 / Ponomarenko 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Stukalov)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13037692
Stukalov1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 110 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it81% 81 of 100
Ponomarenko2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 49 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov6wins
AwayPonomarenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStukalov leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov100%5 of 5
AwayPonomarenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Stukalov6Ponomarenko4n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S3Stukalov6Ponomarenko4n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S4Stukalov3Ponomarenko3n = 6split evenly
S5Stukalov2Ponomarenko1n = 3Stukalov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovPonomarenkoS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.735.4+4.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 802 vs 305 / 65350.5%46.7%405 / 802 vs 305 / 653Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StukalovStukalov 1.44/Ponomarenko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Stukalov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 28 · 05:30V. Stukalov—1111113O. Ponomarenko—6880
WApr 6 · 11:00V. Stukalov—1131110133O. Ponomarenko—911712112
WMar 20 · 12:00V. Stukalov—1111113O. Ponomarenko—3560
LMar 18 · 06:30V. Stukalov—11911101O. Ponomarenko—13117123
LMar 16 · 09:30V. Stukalov—6890O. Ponomarenko—1111113
WMar 11 · 08:00V. Stukalov—1111113O. Ponomarenko—7980
LMar 2 · 06:00V. Stukalov—911131132O. Ponomarenko—118157113
LFeb 27 · 08:00V. Stukalov—1311991O. Ponomarenko—15711103
WFeb 25 · 10:00V. Stukalov—11119113O. Ponomarenko—631141
WFeb 23 · 06:30V. Stukalov—991112143O. Ponomarenko—1111510122
V. Stukalov10
LSep 7 · 08:20V. Stukalov2.5012119792O. Mytsyk1.501061111113WSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850LSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113WSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130LSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113LSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113LSep 3 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.611111113V. Stukalov2.206740WSep 3 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.8311512113S. Semenets1.839111061
O. Ponomarenko10
LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113LAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172LAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830LAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets1.408101111113O. Ponomarenko2.7511122882LAug 29 · 05:50V. Mukhin1.306111110113O. Ponomarenko3.4011741212LAug 26 · 11:30O. Ponomarenko2.385550S. Semenets1.531111113
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