TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037784
Played Aug 29Finished
Oleh Stopin
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118113––––
Oleh Ponomarenko
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeOleh Stopin to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Stopin above · Oleh Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 50 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Oleh Stopin at 76.6%
50 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Stopin 47–3 Oleh Ponomarenko Oleh Ponomarenko has won 3 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:35What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Stopin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-3 in 50
Stopin
Correct
gap of 44 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stopin 1115 vs Ponomarenko 1059
Stopin
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stopin 80% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Stopin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stopin 50% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Stopin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stopin +4 · Ponomarenko -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Stopin)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStopin 1.28 / Ponomarenko 3.50
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Stopin)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13037784
Stopin1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 53 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Ponomarenko3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 49 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStopin10wins
AwayPonomarenko0wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStopin leads 10–0, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStopin100%6 of 6
AwayPonomarenko0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stopin6Ponomarenko4n = 10Stopin took 6 of 10
S2Stopin7Ponomarenko3n = 10Stopin took 7 of 10
S3Stopin8Ponomarenko2n = 10Stopin took 8 of 10
S4Stopin5Ponomarenko2n = 7Stopin took 5 of 7
S5Stopin4Ponomarenko0n = 4Stopin took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStopinPonomarenkoS − PBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.134.0+10.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStopinPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 285 vs 306 / 65550.5%46.7%144 / 285 vs 306 / 655Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StopinStopin 1.28/Ponomarenko 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Stopin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stopin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 09:30O. Stopin—1591112113O. Ponomarenko—171161082
WAug 2 · 10:50O. Stopin—5131110153O. Ponomarenko—1111512132
WJul 31 · 18:30O. Stopin—71314113O. Ponomarenko—11111281
WJul 15 · 15:00O. Stopin—1111113O. Ponomarenko—4490
WJul 11 · 07:00O. Stopin—11911113O. Ponomarenko—611561
WJul 5 · 08:20O. Stopin—1111107113O. Ponomarenko—79121152
WJul 4 · 07:35O. Stopin—1011911113O. Ponomarenko—12411782
WJun 28 · 15:10O. Stopin—11811113O. Ponomarenko—711761
WJun 14 · 16:40O. Stopin—1111113O. Ponomarenko—2580
WJun 13 · 09:00O. Stopin—1111113O. Ponomarenko—9350
O. Stopin10
WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112LSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821WSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852LAug 29 · 11:50V. Mukhin1.221111113O. Stopin4.009440LAug 29 · 10:50O. Stopin1.83691141S. Semenets1.8311116113WAug 29 · 08:20O. Stopin2.251115143V. Stukalov1.57913120WAug 29 · 06:20O. Stopin2.5014118113D. Khavanskyi1.501271171WAug 26 · 10:30O. Miklukha2.00771371O. Stopin1.73111111113
O. Ponomarenko10
LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123LAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172LAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets1.408101111113O. Ponomarenko2.7511122882LAug 29 · 05:50V. Mukhin1.306111110113O. Ponomarenko3.4011741212LAug 26 · 11:30O. Ponomarenko2.385550S. Semenets1.531111113
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