TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037707
Played Aug 29Finished
Oleh Stopin
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611911116411––
Serhii Semenets
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingOleh Stopin above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 69 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Semenets at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Stopin 15–12 Serhii Semenets Serhii Semenets has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:13What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Semenets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-12 in 27
Stopin
Wrong
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stopin 1114 vs Semenets 1277
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stopin 40% vs Semenets 80%
Semenets
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stopin 30% vs Semenets 60%
Semenets
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stopin +2 · Semenets +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Semenets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStopin 1.83 / Semenets 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Semenets)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13037707
Stopin1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Semenets1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStopin6wins
AwaySemenets4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStopin leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStopin75%6 of 8
AwaySemenetsn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stopin8Semenets2n = 10Stopin took 8 of 10
S2Stopin4Semenets6n = 10Semenets took 6 of 10
S3Stopin5Semenets5n = 10split evenly
S4Stopin2Semenets5n = 7Semenets took 5 of 7
S5Stopin3Semenets2n = 5Stopin took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStopinSemenetsStopin − SemenetsBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.640.1−2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStopinSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 281 vs 408 / 81550.5%50.1%142 / 281 vs 408 / 815Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsStopin 1.83/Semenets 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 05:00O. Stopin—11912962S. Semenets—9111011113
LAug 23 · 05:35O. Stopin—8550S. Semenets—1111113
LAug 16 · 05:35O. Stopin—9360S. Semenets—1111113
WAug 2 · 06:20O. Stopin—111210113S. Semenets—5101291
WJul 31 · 15:30O. Stopin—169113123S. Semenets—1411711102
WJul 15 · 14:00O. Stopin—115112113S. Semenets—51181182
WJul 11 · 08:00O. Stopin—1111113S. Semenets—7590
WJul 8 · 15:30O. Stopin—13911133S. Semenets—11117111
WJul 5 · 06:50O. Stopin—111195113S. Semenets—47111192
LJul 4 · 11:35O. Stopin—11114242S. Semenets—781111113
O. Stopin10
WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112LSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821WSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852LAug 29 · 11:50V. Mukhin1.221111113O. Stopin4.009440WAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830WAug 29 · 08:20O. Stopin2.251115143V. Stukalov1.57913120WAug 29 · 06:20O. Stopin2.5014118113D. Khavanskyi1.501271171WAug 26 · 10:30O. Miklukha2.00771371O. Stopin1.73111111113
S. Semenets10
LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113WSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121LSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112
Upcoming Matches
O. Stopin
Nothing scheduled
S. Semenets
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