TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079239
Played Sep 5Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191210611711611
Serhii Semenets
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 94 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 65.3%
94 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 24–14 Serhii Semenets Serhii Semenets has won 14 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:34What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mukhin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-14 in 38
Mukhin
Wrong
gap of 10 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1243 vs Semenets 1244
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 60% vs Semenets 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 70% vs Semenets 40%
Mukhin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin -2 · Semenets -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Mukhin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.44 / Semenets 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Mukhin)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13079239
Mukhin1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 94 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it96% 53 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it79% 70 of 89
Semenets2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 45 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin7wins
AwaySemenets3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMukhin leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin87.5%7 of 8
AwaySemenetsn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin8Semenets2n = 10Mukhin took 8 of 10
S2Mukhin7Semenets3n = 10Mukhin took 7 of 10
S3Mukhin8Semenets2n = 10Mukhin took 8 of 10
S4Mukhin2Semenets3n = 5Semenets took 3 of 5
S5Mukhin1Semenets2n = 3Semenets took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinSemenetsM − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.132.1+7.0per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 295 vs 416 / 82650.5%50.4%149 / 295 vs 416 / 826Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.44/Semenets 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin—1111912133S. Semenets—671114112
WAug 30 · 06:35V. Mukhin—1111113S. Semenets—6440
LAug 29 · 08:50V. Mukhin—76111252S. Semenets—1111710113
WAug 18 · 07:30V. Mukhin—1116113S. Semenets—51440
LAug 16 · 06:35V. Mukhin—81111962S. Semenets—118811113
WAug 6 · 07:30V. Mukhin—1111113S. Semenets—9830
LAug 5 · 13:30V. Mukhin—119491S. Semenets—51111113
WAug 2 · 07:20V. Mukhin—14711113S. Semenets—1211491
WJul 31 · 13:30V. Mukhin—1411113S. Semenets—12480
WJul 11 · 06:00V. Mukhin—1111113S. Semenets—7830
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591WAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050
S. Semenets10
LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121LSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 14:00S. Semenets2.259111111113D. Khavanskyi1.5711135882
Upcoming Matches
V. Mukhin
Nothing scheduled
S. Semenets
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