TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079171
Played Sep 5Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117116––––
Oleh Stopin
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 84.6% is still 84.6%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
84.6%
84.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Oleh Stopin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 84.6%
55 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 15–1 Oleh Stopin Oleh Stopin has won 1 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:23What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Mukhin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-1 in 16
Mukhin
Correct
gap of 14 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1266 vs Stopin 1168
Mukhin
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 40% vs Stopin 60%
Stopin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 60% vs Stopin 80%
Stopin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +2 · Stopin +3
Stopin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Mukhin) · live re-read · sealed at 85% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stopin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.20 / Stopin 4.33
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Mukhin)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13079171
Mukhin1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 94 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it96% 53 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it79% 70 of 89
Stopin4.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog22% won 13 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back15% 5 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin10wins
AwayStopin0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMukhin leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin100%7 of 7
AwayStopin0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin7Stopin3n = 10Mukhin took 7 of 10
S2Mukhin7Stopin3n = 10Mukhin took 7 of 10
S3Mukhin9Stopin1n = 10Mukhin took 9 of 10
S4Mukhin5Stopin1n = 6Mukhin took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinStopinM − SBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.829.1+10.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinStopinBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 298 vs 145 / 27950.7%52%151 / 298 vs 145 / 279Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.20/Stopin 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.6%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 11:50V. Mukhin—1111113O. Stopin—9440
WAug 16 · 11:05V. Mukhin—11811113O. Stopin—311661
WAug 2 · 11:50V. Mukhin—51111113O. Stopin—119471
WJul 31 · 16:30V. Mukhin—1111113O. Stopin—9820
WJul 11 · 09:00V. Mukhin—11911113O. Stopin—911591
WJul 8 · 16:30V. Mukhin—91111123O. Stopin—1174101
WJul 5 · 10:20V. Mukhin—129715113O. Stopin—1011111392
WJul 4 · 09:35V. Mukhin—2111114103O. Stopin—11451682
WApr 9 · 09:35V. Mukhin—1111113O. Stopin—2870
WMar 29 · 15:10V. Mukhin—1111113O. Stopin—5570
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591WAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050
O. Stopin10
WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821WSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852LAug 29 · 11:50V. Mukhin1.221111113O. Stopin4.009440LAug 29 · 10:50O. Stopin1.83691141S. Semenets1.8311116113WAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830WAug 29 · 08:20O. Stopin2.251115143V. Stukalov1.57913120WAug 29 · 06:20O. Stopin2.5014118113D. Khavanskyi1.501271171WAug 26 · 10:30O. Miklukha2.00771371O. Stopin1.73111111113
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