TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079147
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleh Stopin
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111210118112––
Volodymyr Varchenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleh Stopin above · Volodymyr Varchenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 73 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Volodymyr Varchenko at 55.4%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Stopin 11–9 Volodymyr Varchenko Volodymyr Varchenko has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:23What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Varchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Stopin
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stopin 1156 vs Varchenko 1174
Varchenko
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stopin 60% vs Varchenko 40%
Stopin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stopin 70% vs Varchenko 40%
Stopin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stopin +2 · Varchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Varchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStopin 2.20 / Varchenko 1.61
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Varchenko)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13079147
Stopin2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog22% won 13 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back15% 5 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Varchenko1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 24 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStopin4wins
AwayVarchenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVarchenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStopin75%3 of 4
AwayVarchenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stopin4Varchenko6n = 10Varchenko took 6 of 10
S2Stopin4Varchenko6n = 10Varchenko took 6 of 10
S3Stopin5Varchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Stopin4Varchenko3n = 7Stopin took 4 of 7
S5Stopin1Varchenko2n = 3Varchenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStopinVarchenkoS − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.938.4−1.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStopinVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 278 vs 98 / 22151.8%44.3%144 / 278 vs 98 / 221Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarchenkoStopin 2.20/Varchenko 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Varchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stopin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 07:35O. Stopin—611101142V. Varchenko—114124113
LAug 16 · 10:05O. Stopin—11111011112V. Varchenko—841213133
LAug 2 · 08:20O. Stopin—8101181V. Varchenko—11128113
LJul 31 · 14:30O. Stopin—7850V. Varchenko—1111113
WJul 15 · 13:00O. Stopin—1111123V. Varchenko—99100
WJul 11 · 05:30O. Stopin—12911113V. Varchenko—1011951
LApr 26 · 07:35O. Stopin—941131V. Varchenko—11118113
LMar 29 · 13:10O. Stopin—91320V. Varchenko—1115113
WMar 22 · 16:10O. Stopin—6101211113V. Varchenko—111210762
WMar 1 · 16:10O. Stopin—1112783V. Varchenko—5101141
O. Stopin10
WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112LSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852LAug 29 · 11:50V. Mukhin1.221111113O. Stopin4.009440LAug 29 · 10:50O. Stopin1.83691141S. Semenets1.8311116113WAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830WAug 29 · 08:20O. Stopin2.251115143V. Stukalov1.57913120WAug 29 · 06:20O. Stopin2.5014118113D. Khavanskyi1.501271171WAug 26 · 10:30O. Miklukha2.00771371O. Stopin1.73111111113
V. Varchenko10
LSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102LSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152WSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LAug 23 · 11:35V. Varchenko1.73491191S. Baranskyi2.0011116113WAug 23 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.508960V. Varchenko2.501111113LAug 23 · 08:35V. Varchenko2.389640S. Semenets1.531111113WAug 23 · 07:35O. Stopin2.10611101142V. Varchenko1.67114124113LAug 23 · 06:05V. Varchenko1.83101060Y. Korotin1.831212113LAug 22 · 11:30V. Varchenko3.2511751162V. Kondratenko1.33511118113
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