TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12478329
Played Aug 23Finished
Volodymyr Varchenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411911116911––
Serhii Baranskyi
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
411911116911––
H2H Volodymyr Varchenko 8–8 Serhii Baranskyi Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:11What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Varchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varchenko 1170 vs Baranskyi 1262
Baranskyi
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varchenko 20% vs Baranskyi 40%
Baranskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varchenko 40% vs Baranskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varchenko -2 · Baranskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Varchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarchenko 1.73 / Baranskyi 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Varchenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12478329
Varchenko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 25 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Baranskyi2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 8 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back15% 2 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarchenko6wins
AwayBaranskyi4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVarchenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarchenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayBaranskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varchenko6Baranskyi4n = 10Varchenko took 6 of 10
S2Varchenko9Baranskyi1n = 10Varchenko took 9 of 10
S3Varchenko5Baranskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Varchenko2Baranskyi5n = 7Baranskyi took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarchenkoBaranskyiV − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.034.2+3.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarchenkoBaranskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 218 vs 101 / 19644%51.5%96 / 218 vs 101 / 196Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarchenkoVarchenko 1.73/Baranskyi 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Varchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baranskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 07:30V. Varchenko—61511113S. Baranskyi—1113371
WJun 14 · 09:05V. Varchenko—121169113S. Baranskyi—105111172
WMar 29 · 11:10V. Varchenko—1111113S. Baranskyi—6980
WMar 1 · 14:40V. Varchenko—11116113S. Baranskyi—961121
WFeb 8 · 13:10V. Varchenko—1113113S. Baranskyi—61190
LDec 19 · 17:50V. Varchenko—6117111S. Baranskyi—11411133
WDec 13 · 09:35V. Varchenko—1111103S. Baranskyi—3980
LNov 15 · 06:00V. Varchenko—511491S. Baranskyi—11811113
LNov 8 · 12:35V. Varchenko—12611121S. Baranskyi—14116143
LNov 2 · 13:05V. Varchenko—11117782S. Baranskyi—271111113
V. Varchenko10
LSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102LSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821LSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152WSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113WAug 23 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.508960V. Varchenko2.501111113LAug 23 · 08:35V. Varchenko2.389640S. Semenets1.531111113WAug 23 · 07:35O. Stopin2.10611101142V. Varchenko1.67114124113LAug 23 · 06:05V. Varchenko1.83101060Y. Korotin1.831212113LAug 22 · 11:30V. Varchenko3.2511751162V. Kondratenko1.33511118113
S. Baranskyi10
WSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113WSep 6 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.918640S. Baranskyi1.801111113LSep 6 · 16:00B. Zaika1.7311811113S. Baranskyi2.00611391LSep 6 · 14:00K. Klymenko1.57714146103S. Baranskyi2.251112121172LSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361WAug 30 · 17:40M. Khalenko1.8310990S. Baranskyi1.831211113WAug 30 · 16:10S. Baranskyi2.5091111133K. Klymenko1.501189111WAug 30 · 12:10Y. Korotin2.251110111242S. Baranskyi1.57712314113WAug 30 · 11:10V. Stukalov2.00119261S. Baranskyi1.7381111113LAug 23 · 10:35S. Semenets1.73111194113S. Baranskyi2.0097111172
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