TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084307
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611411––––
Serhii Baranskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeSerhii Baranskyi to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Ovsiienko above · Serhii Baranskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 51 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Baranskyi at 56.2%
51 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ovsiienko 2–4 Serhii Baranskyi Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Baranskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Baranskyi
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovsiienko 1377 vs Baranskyi 1323
Ovsiienko
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovsiienko 0% vs Baranskyi 40%
Baranskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovsiienko 30% vs Baranskyi 60%
Baranskyi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovsiienko -5 · Baranskyi -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baranskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baranskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvsiienko 1.91 / Baranskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baranskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13084307
Ovsiienko1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 79 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back14% 16 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 76
Baranskyi1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 23 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it69% 18 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeOvsiienko2wins
AwayBaranskyi4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderBaranskyi leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvsiienko40%2 of 5
AwayBaranskyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovsiienko5Baranskyi1n = 6Ovsiienko took 5 of 6
S2Ovsiienko2Baranskyi4n = 6Baranskyi took 4 of 6
S3Ovsiienko0Baranskyi6n = 6Baranskyi took 6 of 6
S4Ovsiienko1Baranskyi4n = 5Baranskyi took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricOvsiienkoBaranskyiO − BBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match38.241.2−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvsiienkoBaranskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime443 / 851 vs 105 / 20052.1%52.5%443 / 851 vs 105 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranskyiOvsiienko 1.91/Baranskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Baranskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Baranskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 6 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko—8640S. Baranskyi—1111113
LAug 8 · 04:30O. Ovsiienko—11911141S. Baranskyi—61113163
LMay 10 · 17:40O. Ovsiienko—115971S. Baranskyi—41111113
WMay 1 · 05:00O. Ovsiienko—111117123S. Baranskyi—7919101
WMar 15 · 12:10O. Ovsiienko—111199123S. Baranskyi—831111112
LMar 1 · 13:40O. Ovsiienko—118481S. Baranskyi—91111113
O. Ovsiienko10
LSep 7 · 05:05K. Klymenko2.6311139113O. Ovsiienko1.443111191WSep 6 · 19:00K. Klymenko2.638101181O. Ovsiienko1.4411128113LSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621LSep 6 · 12:30B. Zaika1.3611311113O. Ovsiienko3.00811651LSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212LSep 3 · 11:20A. Kovalenko1.611111123O. Ovsiienko2.2049100WSep 3 · 09:50K. Klymenko3.0011812562O. Ovsiienko1.369111011113LSep 3 · 07:50O. Mytsyk2.001011811113O. Ovsiienko1.7312711262WSep 3 · 05:50M. Stetsenko1.6747111162O. Ovsiienko2.10111159113
S. Baranskyi10
WSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113LSep 6 · 16:00B. Zaika1.7311811113S. Baranskyi2.00611391LSep 6 · 14:00K. Klymenko1.57714146103S. Baranskyi2.251112121172LSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361WAug 30 · 17:40M. Khalenko1.8310990S. Baranskyi1.831211113WAug 30 · 16:10S. Baranskyi2.5091111133K. Klymenko1.501189111WAug 30 · 12:10Y. Korotin2.251110111242S. Baranskyi1.57712314113WAug 30 · 11:10V. Stukalov2.00119261S. Baranskyi1.7381111113WAug 23 · 11:35V. Varchenko1.73491191S. Baranskyi2.0011116113LAug 23 · 10:35S. Semenets1.73111194113S. Baranskyi2.0097111172
Upcoming Matches
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