TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13085111
Played Sep 6Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
71111611672––
Oleksandr Ovsiienko
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:38 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeVasiliy Smyk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-2
Point 61 set 4, 7-2 — our read held Vasiliy Smyk at 54.9%
61 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 4–2 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:38What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Smyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Smyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1419 vs Ovsiienko 1426
Ovsiienko
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 60% vs Ovsiienko 20%
Smyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 70% vs Ovsiienko 50%
Smyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk +1 · Ovsiienko -3
Ovsiienko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Smyk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 1.61 / Ovsiienko 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Smyk)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13085111
Smyk1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 36 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Ovsiienko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 79 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back14% 16 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSmyk4wins
AwayOvsiienko2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderSmyk leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmykn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayOvsiienko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk1Ovsiienko5n = 6Ovsiienko took 5 of 6
S2Smyk4Ovsiienko2n = 6Smyk took 4 of 6
S3Smyk4Ovsiienko2n = 6Smyk took 4 of 6
S4Smyk3Ovsiienko1n = 4Smyk took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSmykOvsiienkoS − OBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match36.532.3+4.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 642 vs 442 / 84742.7%52.2%274 / 642 vs 442 / 847Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmykSmyk 1.61/Ovsiienko 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Smyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Smyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 2 · 16:00V. Smyk—911791O. Ovsiienko—11811113
WAug 19 · 12:30V. Smyk—391111113O. Ovsiienko—11116522
WAug 16 · 14:30V. Smyk—1111113O. Ovsiienko—8660
WAug 9 · 16:00V. Smyk—101411113O. Ovsiienko—1212551
WJul 20 · 10:20V. Smyk—71111113O. Ovsiienko—118381
LJul 19 · 18:30V. Smyk—61030O. Ovsiienko—1112113
V. Smyk10
LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121LSep 5 · 14:30V. Smyk2.388118111D. Patalakha1.5311711133WSep 5 · 12:30V. Smyk2.501081112113S. Solomko1.50121161082WSep 2 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.83101112642V. Smyk1.831281011113
O. Ovsiienko10
LSep 7 · 05:05K. Klymenko2.6311139113O. Ovsiienko1.443111191WSep 6 · 19:00K. Klymenko2.638101181O. Ovsiienko1.4411128113LSep 6 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko1.918640S. Baranskyi1.801111113LSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 12:30B. Zaika1.3611311113O. Ovsiienko3.00811651LSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212LSep 3 · 11:20A. Kovalenko1.611111123O. Ovsiienko2.2049100WSep 3 · 09:50K. Klymenko3.0011812562O. Ovsiienko1.369111011113LSep 3 · 07:50O. Mytsyk2.001011811113O. Ovsiienko1.7312711262WSep 3 · 05:50M. Stetsenko1.6747111162O. Ovsiienko2.10111159113
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