TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079215
Played Sep 5Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10128111161210118
Serhii Solomko
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:32 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Solomko to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Serhii Solomko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 8-8
Point 96 set 5, 8-8 — our read held Serhii Solomko at 66.9%
96 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 11–23 Serhii Solomko Vasiliy Smyk has won 11 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:32What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Solomko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-23 in 34
Solomko
Wrong
gap of 12 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1417 vs Solomko 1586
Solomko
Wrong
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 60% vs Solomko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 40% vs Solomko 80%
Solomko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk +2 · Solomko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Solomko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 2.50 / Solomko 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Solomko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13079215
Smyk2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 94 of 230
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 70
Solomko1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 130 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 93 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk2wins
AwaySolomko8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSolomko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk33.3%1 of 3
AwaySolomko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk3Solomko7n = 10Solomko took 7 of 10
S2Smyk4Solomko6n = 10Solomko took 6 of 10
S3Smyk3Solomko7n = 10Solomko took 7 of 10
S4Smyk4Solomko3n = 7Smyk took 4 of 7
S5Smyk1Solomko3n = 4Solomko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykSolomkoSmyk − SolomkoBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.240.7−7.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykSolomkoBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 636 vs 521 / 101742.5%51.2%270 / 636 vs 521 / 1017Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SolomkoSmyk 2.50/Solomko 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Solomko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Smyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 16:00V. Smyk—413651S. Solomko—111111103
WAug 4 · 11:10V. Smyk—891111113S. Solomko—11118472
LAug 1 · 14:30V. Smyk—716512102S. Solomko—11141110123
LJul 12 · 06:20V. Smyk—3560S. Solomko—1111113
LJul 11 · 16:30V. Smyk—711441S. Solomko—11811113
LJul 10 · 09:20V. Smyk—12471192S. Solomko—1011115113
LJul 4 · 06:50V. Smyk—3480S. Solomko—1111113
LJul 3 · 13:00V. Smyk—131031162S. Solomko—1112115113
WJun 28 · 09:20V. Smyk—1111113S. Solomko—9690
LJun 27 · 13:00V. Smyk—681151S. Solomko—11113113
V. Smyk10
LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121LSep 5 · 14:30V. Smyk2.388118111D. Patalakha1.5311711133WSep 2 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.83101112642V. Smyk1.831281011113
S. Solomko10
LSep 7 · 06:30S. Solomko2.009880O. Volynets1.731111113LSep 7 · 05:30D. Khairov1.502011113S. Solomko2.5018880WSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393WSep 6 · 11:20S. Solomko1.251211113M. Stetsenko3.7510670LSep 6 · 09:20O. Lipeiko1.91611611153S. Solomko1.80111118132WSep 6 · 07:20D. Patalakha1.73119391S. Solomko2.0071111113WSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113LSep 5 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.44111110113S. Solomko2.63771281LSep 5 · 17:30S. Solomko1.919790F. Voinarovskyi1.801111113LSep 5 · 15:30D. Patalakha1.8311112S. Solomko1.83690
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S. Solomko
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