TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079312
Played Sep 5Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111178111113––
Dmytro Patalakha
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeDmytro Patalakha to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Dmytro Patalakha below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 80 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Dmytro Patalakha at 61.6%
80 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 20–38 Dmytro Patalakha Vasiliy Smyk has won 20 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:40What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Patalakha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-38 in 58
Patalakha
Correct
gap of 18 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1411 vs Patalakha 1497
Patalakha
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 80% vs Patalakha 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 40% vs Patalakha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk +3 · Patalakha +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Patalakha) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Patalakha form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 2.38 / Patalakha 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Patalakha)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13079312
Smyk2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 94 of 230
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 70
Patalakha1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 29 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it67% 12 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk3wins
AwayPatalakha7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPatalakha leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk42.9%3 of 7
AwayPatalakha100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk7Patalakha3n = 10Smyk took 7 of 10
S2Smyk5Patalakha5n = 10split evenly
S3Smyk2Patalakha8n = 10Patalakha took 8 of 10
S4Smyk2Patalakha6n = 8Patalakha took 6 of 8
S5Smyk2Patalakha3n = 5Patalakha took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykPatalakhaS − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.140.8−1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykPatalakhaBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 641 vs 122 / 25342.6%48.2%273 / 641 vs 122 / 253Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PatalakhaSmyk 2.38/Patalakha 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Patalakha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Patalakha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 14:30V. Smyk—8118111D. Patalakha—11711133
LAug 1 · 12:30V. Smyk—119111372D. Patalakha—811815113
LJul 12 · 08:20V. Smyk—11117662D. Patalakha—981111113
LJul 11 · 15:30V. Smyk—7115101D. Patalakha—11911123
WJun 14 · 09:50V. Smyk—1111113D. Patalakha—7610
WJun 13 · 19:20V. Smyk—1111211113D. Patalakha—98111372
LMay 3 · 09:50V. Smyk—9620D. Patalakha—1111113
LMay 2 · 21:20V. Smyk—1191051D. Patalakha—31112113
WApr 5 · 09:50V. Smyk—1161311113D. Patalakha—41115692
LApr 4 · 21:20V. Smyk—11951192D. Patalakha—311117113
V. Smyk10
LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121WSep 5 · 12:30V. Smyk2.501081112113S. Solomko1.50121161082WSep 2 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.83101112642V. Smyk1.831281011113
D. Patalakha10
WSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:20D. Patalakha1.73291111113O. Lipeiko2.0011117652WSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171LSep 6 · 07:20D. Patalakha1.73119391S. Solomko2.0071111113LSep 6 · 05:50D. Patalakha1.61781171M. Stetsenko2.2011114113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Patalakha1.73121011113F. Voinarovskyi2.001012591LSep 5 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.571171163D. Patalakha2.25911621WSep 5 · 15:30D. Patalakha1.8311112S. Solomko1.83690WSep 5 · 13:00D. Patalakha3.50111149123O. Tymofeev1.28191111102WAug 13 · 18:35M. Skliar1.671188121D. Patalakha2.1091111143
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