TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084449
Played Sep 6Finished
Dmytro Patalakha
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141311711117––
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Patalakha above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Patalakha 3–5 Anatolii Kovalenko Dmytro Patalakha has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:29What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovalenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Kovalenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Patalakha 1471 vs Kovalenko 1421
Patalakha
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Patalakha 40% vs Kovalenko 80%
Kovalenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Patalakha 70% vs Kovalenko 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Patalakha -2 · Kovalenko +3
Kovalenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPatalakha 2.00 / Kovalenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084449
Patalakha2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 20 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back28% 9 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back18% 3 of 17
Kovalenko1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite52% won 75 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it67% 49 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePatalakha3wins
AwayKovalenko5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderKovalenko leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePatalakhan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKovalenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Patalakha2Kovalenko6n = 8Kovalenko took 6 of 8
S2Patalakha3Kovalenko5n = 8Kovalenko took 5 of 8
S3Patalakha6Kovalenko2n = 8Patalakha took 6 of 8
S4Patalakha2Kovalenko4n = 6Kovalenko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricPatalakhaKovalenkoP − KBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match38.241.5−3.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPatalakhaKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 255 vs 272 / 50847.8%53.5%122 / 255 vs 272 / 508Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoPatalakha 2.00/Kovalenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Patalakha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 1 · 13:30D. Patalakha—511121193A. Kovalenko—111310572
LJul 25 · 13:30D. Patalakha—11101171A. Kovalenko—13125113
WJun 14 · 07:50D. Patalakha—71111123A. Kovalenko—1167101
LJun 13 · 16:20D. Patalakha—98110A. Kovalenko—1111133
WJun 7 · 05:50D. Patalakha—1111213A. Kovalenko—79190
LJun 6 · 17:50D. Patalakha—781241A. Kovalenko—111110113
LMay 3 · 05:50D. Patalakha—813531A. Kovalenko—111111113
LMay 2 · 20:20D. Patalakha—131011672A. Kovalenko—1112911113
D. Patalakha10
WSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:20D. Patalakha1.73291111113O. Lipeiko2.0011117652LSep 6 · 07:20D. Patalakha1.73119391S. Solomko2.0071111113LSep 6 · 05:50D. Patalakha1.61781171M. Stetsenko2.2011114113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Patalakha1.73121011113F. Voinarovskyi2.001012591LSep 5 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.571171163D. Patalakha2.25911621WSep 5 · 15:30D. Patalakha1.8311112S. Solomko1.83690WSep 5 · 14:30V. Smyk2.388118111D. Patalakha1.5311711133WSep 5 · 13:00D. Patalakha3.50111149123O. Tymofeev1.28191111102WAug 13 · 18:35M. Skliar1.671188121D. Patalakha2.1091111143
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123WSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:05K. Klymenko1.73881111113A. Kovalenko2.0011118722WSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113WSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123LSep 3 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.251111913113A. Kovalenko1.57136111192
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