TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067164
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksandr Mytsyk
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131169111311119
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Mytsyk above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 105 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 60.9%
105 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mytsyk 10–19 Anatolii Kovalenko Oleksandr Mytsyk has won 10 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovalenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-19 in 29
Kovalenko
Wrong
gap of 9 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mytsyk 1339 vs Kovalenko 1365
Kovalenko
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mytsyk 20% vs Kovalenko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mytsyk 30% vs Kovalenko 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mytsyk -2 · Kovalenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kovalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMytsyk 2.25 / Kovalenko 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kovalenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067164
Mytsyk2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog37% won 62 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back21% 21 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Kovalenko1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite51% won 70 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it67% 45 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMytsyk2wins
AwayKovalenko8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKovalenko leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMytsyk0%0 of 3
AwayKovalenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mytsyk3Kovalenko7n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S2Mytsyk3Kovalenko7n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S3Mytsyk3Kovalenko7n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S4Mytsyk4Kovalenko3n = 7Mytsyk took 4 of 7
S5Mytsyk2Kovalenko4n = 6Kovalenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMytsykKovalenkoM − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.843.8−5.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMytsykKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime533 / 1073 vs 266 / 50149.7%53.1%533 / 1073 vs 266 / 501Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoMytsyk 2.25/Kovalenko 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mytsyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 12:50O. Mytsyk—1111913113A. Kovalenko—136111192
LJul 31 · 05:00O. Mytsyk—66111272A. Kovalenko—1111510113
LJul 26 · 12:30O. Mytsyk—11991172A. Kovalenko—911118113
LJul 23 · 06:50O. Mytsyk—91250A. Kovalenko—1114113
WJul 20 · 12:50O. Mytsyk—1111119113A. Kovalenko—13951162
LJul 13 · 09:20O. Mytsyk—73111162A. Kovalenko—111197113
LJul 8 · 12:05O. Mytsyk—1121161A. Kovalenko—81113113
LJul 6 · 06:50O. Mytsyk—55100A. Kovalenko—1111123
LJul 2 · 08:50O. Mytsyk—10990A. Kovalenko—1211113
LMay 31 · 12:50O. Mytsyk—13118892A. Kovalenko—1161111113
O. Mytsyk10
WSep 7 · 06:50O. Mytsyk1.67212713123V. Melnykov2.1011101111102LSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov2.25111410482O. Mytsyk1.579121211113LSep 4 · 06:35M. Stetsenko1.4411714113O. Mytsyk2.636111241LSep 4 · 05:35K. Klymenko1.611111113O. Mytsyk2.209870LSep 3 · 10:50K. Klymenko1.6751117113O. Mytsyk2.101121581LSep 3 · 08:50M. Stetsenko1.5011119113O. Mytsyk2.50951151WSep 3 · 07:50O. Mytsyk2.001011811113O. Ovsiienko1.7312711262LSep 3 · 06:50O. Leonenko2.631111113O. Mytsyk1.449680
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123WSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:05K. Klymenko1.73881111113A. Kovalenko2.0011118722WSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113WSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123
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