TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072924
Played Sep 4Finished
Volodymyr Melnykov
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9116111121191012
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Melnykov above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 92 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 56.2%
92 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Melnykov 6–9 Anatolii Kovalenko Volodymyr Melnykov has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:39What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Kovalenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnykov 1344 vs Kovalenko 1398
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnykov 60% vs Kovalenko 20%
Melnykov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnykov 40% vs Kovalenko 20%
Melnykov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnykov -2 · Kovalenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kovalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnykov 2.10 / Kovalenko 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kovalenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13072924
Melnykov2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 61 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back14% 8 of 58
Kovalenko1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 75 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it67% 49 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnykov5wins
AwayKovalenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnykov75%3 of 4
AwayKovalenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnykov4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S2Melnykov4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S3Melnykov6Kovalenko4n = 10Melnykov took 6 of 10
S4Melnykov4Kovalenko3n = 7Melnykov took 4 of 7
S5Melnykov3Kovalenko2n = 5Melnykov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnykovKovalenkoM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.837.7+1.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykovKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 536 vs 270 / 50645.9%53.4%246 / 536 vs 270 / 506Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoMelnykov 2.10/Kovalenko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov—961111102A. Kovalenko—111129123
LAug 16 · 09:50V. Melnykov—411791A. Kovalenko—11711113
LAug 10 · 12:20V. Melnykov—138391A. Kovalenko—111111113
WAug 7 · 09:30V. Melnykov—118411113A. Kovalenko—51111552
WJul 31 · 08:00V. Melnykov—1111113A. Kovalenko—9680
WJul 26 · 19:00V. Melnykov—1411113A. Kovalenko—12780
LJul 6 · 08:20V. Melnykov—11670A. Kovalenko—1311113
WJul 2 · 10:20V. Melnykov—6111111113A. Kovalenko—11691352
WMay 3 · 10:20V. Melnykov—771211113A. Kovalenko—111110232
LMay 2 · 16:20V. Melnykov—28111192A. Kovalenko—111139113
V. Melnykov10
LSep 7 · 06:50O. Mytsyk1.67212713123V. Melnykov2.1011101111102LSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 09:35M. Stetsenko1.73611831V. Melnykov2.0011311113LSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov2.25111410482O. Mytsyk1.579121211113WSep 4 · 07:35K. Klymenko3.2581311472V. Melnykov1.331111811113LAug 27 · 11:30O. Ovsiienko1.731111113V. Melnykov2.006990LAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123WAug 27 · 08:00O. Mytsyk1.61118121342V. Melnykov2.208111015113WAug 27 · 06:00V. Mukhin3.50761151V. Melnykov1.2811116113WAug 27 · 05:00K. Klymenko3.2581120V. Melnykov1.331111143
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123WSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:05K. Klymenko1.73881111113A. Kovalenko2.0011118722WSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113WSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771LSep 3 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.251111913113A. Kovalenko1.57136111192
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