TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022486
Played Aug 27Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711611116511––
Volodymyr Melnykov
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:42 and never touched — 75.5% is still 75.5%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Melnykov to win
75.5%
75.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Volodymyr Melnykov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 68 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Volodymyr Melnykov at 75.5%
68 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 0–8 Volodymyr Melnykov Vitalii Mukhin has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:42What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Melnykov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-8 in 8
Melnykov
Correct
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1191 vs Melnykov 1352
Melnykov
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 20% vs Melnykov 40%
Melnykov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 60% vs Melnykov 40%
Mukhin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin -2 · Melnykov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Melnykov) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnykov form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 3.50 / Melnykov 1.28
Signal prob.23% / 78%
Edge (Melnykov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13022486
Mukhin3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 19 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back11% 5 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Melnykov1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 60 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it71% 41 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMukhin0wins
AwayMelnykov8wins
Melnykov leads 8–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhinn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMelnykov100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin1Melnykov7n = 8Melnykov took 7 of 8
S2Mukhin0Melnykov8n = 8Melnykov took 8 of 8
S3Mukhin2Melnykov6n = 8Melnykov took 6 of 8
S4Mukhin0Melnykov3n = 3Melnykov took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away563%
These 8 meetings
MetricMukhinMelnykovMukhin − MelnykovBasisWins08−8in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match23.135.2−12.1per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinMelnykovBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 281 vs 250 / 55049.8%45.5%140 / 281 vs 250 / 550Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnykovMukhin 3.50/Melnykov 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Melnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Melnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 27 · 06:00V. Mukhin—761151V. Melnykov—11116113
LMay 8 · 11:50V. Mukhin—111471V. Melnykov—61111113
LMay 7 · 20:50V. Mukhin—91090V. Melnykov—1112113
LApr 30 · 17:50V. Mukhin—9560V. Melnykov—1111113
LMar 10 · 09:05V. Mukhin—8830V. Melnykov—1111113
LMar 8 · 08:30V. Mukhin—4490V. Melnykov—1111113
LJan 16 · 08:20V. Mukhin—8450V. Melnykov—1111113
LJan 15 · 20:20V. Mukhin—5611101V. Melnykov—11114123
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591
V. Melnykov10
LSep 7 · 06:50O. Mytsyk1.67212713123V. Melnykov2.1011101111102LSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 09:35M. Stetsenko1.73611831V. Melnykov2.0011311113LSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov2.25111410482O. Mytsyk1.579121211113WSep 4 · 07:35K. Klymenko3.2581311472V. Melnykov1.331111811113LSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123LAug 27 · 11:30O. Ovsiienko1.731111113V. Melnykov2.006990LAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123WAug 27 · 08:00O. Mytsyk1.61118121342V. Melnykov2.208111015113WAug 27 · 05:00K. Klymenko3.2581120V. Melnykov1.331111143
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