TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073536
Played Sep 4Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511117115119––
Denys Khavanskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Khavanskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Denys Khavanskyi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 70 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Denys Khavanskyi at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 4–5 Denys Khavanskyi Vitalii Mukhin has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Khavanskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1238 vs Khavanskyi 1282
Khavanskyi
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 80% vs Khavanskyi 40%
Mukhin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 70% vs Khavanskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +1 · Khavanskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Khavanskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khavanskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.91 / Khavanskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Khavanskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073536
Mukhin1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 20 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Khavanskyi1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite40% won 20 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it74% 17 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMukhin4wins
AwayKhavanskyi5wins
2 of 9 to a deciderKhavanskyi leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin60%3 of 5
AwayKhavanskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin5Khavanskyi4n = 9Mukhin took 5 of 9
S2Mukhin4Khavanskyi5n = 9Khavanskyi took 5 of 9
S3Mukhin3Khavanskyi6n = 9Khavanskyi took 6 of 9
S4Mukhin6Khavanskyi2n = 8Mukhin took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMukhinKhavanskyiM − KBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match35.235.8−0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinKhavanskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 290 vs 154 / 30150.3%51.2%146 / 290 vs 154 / 301Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.435.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhavanskyiMukhin 1.91/Khavanskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Khavanskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 30 · 05:05V. Mukhin—71111113D. Khavanskyi—119531
LAug 29 · 07:20V. Mukhin—4760D. Khavanskyi—1111113
WMay 13 · 10:30V. Mukhin—11611113D. Khavanskyi—811451
LDec 11 · 16:10V. Mukhin—11961172D. Khavanskyi—411114113
LSep 13 · 05:05V. Mukhin—11491522D. Khavanskyi—9111113113
LSep 6 · 05:05V. Mukhin—1111511D. Khavanskyi—13211113
LSep 5 · 05:50V. Mukhin—811191D. Khavanskyi—11119113
WJun 20 · 20:50V. Mukhin—11116113D. Khavanskyi—661161
WMay 24 · 11:50V. Mukhin—11117113D. Khavanskyi—721191
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050
D. Khavanskyi10
LSep 4 · 18:30S. Yakimenko1.671111113D. Khavanskyi2.105780LSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 16:00Y. Korotin2.253980D. Khavanskyi1.571111113LSep 4 · 14:00S. Semenets2.259111111113D. Khavanskyi1.5711135882LSep 3 · 11:05D. Khavanskyi2.00871141V. Korniichuk1.7311114113WSep 3 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.611111113V. Stukalov2.206740LSep 3 · 08:05D. Khavanskyi1.25126531S. Osipov3.75101111113WSep 3 · 06:35D. Khavanskyi1.671111113S. Semenets2.109980LSep 3 · 05:05D. Khavanskyi1.446260M. Khalenko2.631111113WSep 1 · 11:35V. Korniichuk1.61111411682D. Khavanskyi2.20716911113
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