TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067181
Played Sep 3Finished
Denys Khavanskyi
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117114––––
Vladyslav Stukalov
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDenys Khavanskyi to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Khavanskyi above · Vladyslav Stukalov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 50 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Denys Khavanskyi at 58.9%
50 points played in total.
H2H Denys Khavanskyi 25–14 Vladyslav Stukalov Vladyslav Stukalov has won 14 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:39What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Khavanskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-14 in 39
Khavanskyi
Correct
gap of 11 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khavanskyi 1278 vs Stukalov 1305
Stukalov
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khavanskyi 60% vs Stukalov 100%
Stukalov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khavanskyi 70% vs Stukalov 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khavanskyi -1 · Stukalov +5
Stukalov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Khavanskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stukalov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhavanskyi 1.61 / Stukalov 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Khavanskyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067181
Khavanskyi1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite39% won 18 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Stukalov2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 102 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhavanskyi7wins
AwayStukalov3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKhavanskyi leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhavanskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayStukalov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khavanskyi6Stukalov4n = 10Khavanskyi took 6 of 10
S2Khavanskyi4Stukalov6n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S3Khavanskyi7Stukalov3n = 10Khavanskyi took 7 of 10
S4Khavanskyi4Stukalov2n = 6Khavanskyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhavanskyiStukalovK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.330.2+5.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhavanskyiStukalovBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 299 vs 411 / 81351.2%50.6%153 / 299 vs 411 / 813Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhavanskyiKhavanskyi 1.61/Stukalov 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Khavanskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Khavanskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 09:05D. Khavanskyi—11911113V. Stukalov—711631
LAug 29 · 09:20D. Khavanskyi—1112841V. Stukalov—41411113
WAug 26 · 11:00D. Khavanskyi—71113113V. Stukalov—1161151
LMay 30 · 08:30D. Khavanskyi—9550V. Stukalov—1111113
LMay 13 · 07:00D. Khavanskyi—59110V. Stukalov—1111133
WDec 6 · 12:00D. Khavanskyi—111183V. Stukalov—3210
WNov 22 · 08:00D. Khavanskyi—1211115113V. Stukalov—14581182
WNov 18 · 18:10D. Khavanskyi—11711113V. Stukalov—511861
WOct 12 · 21:20D. Khavanskyi—11411113V. Stukalov—511481
WOct 9 · 12:20D. Khavanskyi—1111113V. Stukalov—9690
D. Khavanskyi10
LSep 4 · 18:30S. Yakimenko1.671111113D. Khavanskyi2.105780LSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 16:00Y. Korotin2.253980D. Khavanskyi1.571111113LSep 4 · 14:00S. Semenets2.259111111113D. Khavanskyi1.5711135882LSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591LSep 3 · 11:05D. Khavanskyi2.00871141V. Korniichuk1.7311114113LSep 3 · 08:05D. Khavanskyi1.25126531S. Osipov3.75101111113WSep 3 · 06:35D. Khavanskyi1.671111113S. Semenets2.109980LSep 3 · 05:05D. Khavanskyi1.446260M. Khalenko2.631111113WSep 1 · 11:35V. Korniichuk1.61111411682D. Khavanskyi2.20716911113
V. Stukalov10
LSep 7 · 08:20V. Stukalov2.5012119792O. Mytsyk1.501061111113WSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850LSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113WSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130LSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113LSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113WSep 3 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.8311512113S. Semenets1.839111061WSep 3 · 07:35V. Korniichuk1.3671111882V. Stukalov3.00119611113
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