TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078932
Played Sep 5Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121210411711––
Volodymyr Varchenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:37 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Volodymyr Varchenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 77 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Volodymyr Varchenko at 54.2%
77 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 7–13 Volodymyr Varchenko Vladyslav Stukalov has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:37What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Varchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-13 in 20
Varchenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1279 vs Varchenko 1168
Stukalov
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 60% vs Varchenko 40%
Stukalov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 60% vs Varchenko 30%
Stukalov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -2 · Varchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Varchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 2.00 / Varchenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Varchenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13078932
Stukalov2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 102 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 70
Varchenko1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 24 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov5wins
AwayVarchenko5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov100%3 of 3
AwayVarchenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov3Varchenko7n = 10Varchenko took 7 of 10
S2Stukalov5Varchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Stukalov4Varchenko6n = 10Varchenko took 6 of 10
S4Stukalov7Varchenko2n = 9Stukalov took 7 of 9
S5Stukalov3Varchenko3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovVarchenkoS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.343.4−0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime408 / 810 vs 98 / 22350.4%44%408 / 810 vs 98 / 223Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarchenkoStukalov 2.00/Varchenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Varchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Varchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 09:30V. Stukalov—11137113V. Varchenko—4111191
WAug 5 · 18:30V. Stukalov—1291111113V. Varchenko—14116562
LJun 14 · 07:35V. Stukalov—811211102V. Varchenko—115118123
WApr 26 · 09:35V. Stukalov—1041111183V. Varchenko—121174162
LApr 19 · 15:10V. Stukalov—311511102V. Varchenko—117119123
WApr 12 · 13:10V. Stukalov—111189133V. Varchenko—391111112
LMar 31 · 13:10V. Stukalov—81311111V. Varchenko—11157133
WMar 22 · 14:40V. Stukalov—1113593V. Varchenko—9111141
LMar 1 · 17:40V. Stukalov—4740V. Varchenko—1111113
LFeb 8 · 17:40V. Stukalov—99111682V. Varchenko—1111414113
V. Stukalov10
WSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850LSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113WSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130LSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113LSep 3 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.611111113V. Stukalov2.206740WSep 3 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.8311512113S. Semenets1.839111061WSep 3 · 07:35V. Korniichuk1.3671111882V. Stukalov3.00119611113WSep 3 · 06:05V. Stukalov1.2011911113S. Osipov4.33611561
V. Varchenko10
LSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102LSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821LSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LAug 23 · 11:35V. Varchenko1.73491191S. Baranskyi2.0011116113WAug 23 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.508960V. Varchenko2.501111113LAug 23 · 08:35V. Varchenko2.389640S. Semenets1.531111113WAug 23 · 07:35O. Stopin2.10611101142V. Varchenko1.67114124113LAug 23 · 06:05V. Varchenko1.83101060Y. Korotin1.831212113LAug 22 · 11:30V. Varchenko3.2511751162V. Kondratenko1.33511118113
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