TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472322
Played Aug 22Finished
Volodymyr Varchenko
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115711511118611
Vasily Kondratenko
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeVasily Kondratenko to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Varchenko above · Vasily Kondratenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 86 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Vasily Kondratenko at 70.9%
86 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Varchenko 0–2 Vasily Kondratenko Volodymyr Varchenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:11What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kondratenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Varchenko 1178 vs Kondratenko 1278
Kondratenko
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varchenko 20% vs Kondratenko 60%
Kondratenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varchenko 50% vs Kondratenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varchenko -1 · Kondratenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kondratenko) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kondratenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarchenko 3.25 / Kondratenko 1.33
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Kondratenko)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472322
Varchenko3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 13 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Kondratenko1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 79 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it82% 55 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVarchenko0wins
AwayKondratenko2wins
Kondratenko leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricVarchenkoKondratenkoV − KBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match21.033.5−12.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarchenkoKondratenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 217 vs 272 / 60144.2%45.3%96 / 217 vs 272 / 601Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KondratenkoVarchenko 3.25/Kondratenko 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.9%
Kondratenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kondratenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LMay 9 · 09:30V. Varchenko—9760V. Kondratenko—1111113
LApr 26 · 08:35V. Varchenko—10640V. Kondratenko—1211113
V. Varchenko10
LSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102LSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821LSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152WSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LAug 23 · 11:35V. Varchenko1.73491191S. Baranskyi2.0011116113WAug 23 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.508960V. Varchenko2.501111113LAug 23 · 08:35V. Varchenko2.389640S. Semenets1.531111113WAug 23 · 07:35O. Stopin2.10611101142V. Varchenko1.67114124113LAug 23 · 06:05V. Varchenko1.83101060Y. Korotin1.831212113
V. Kondratenko10
LAug 28 · 09:35K. Klymenko1.509101111113V. Kondratenko2.5011127482LAug 28 · 08:35V. Kondratenko2.00813100S. Skhabitskiy1.731115123LAug 28 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.2071111113V. Kondratenko1.61116481LAug 28 · 06:05V. Kondratenko2.20116691O. Mytsyk1.6181111113LAug 27 · 11:00O. Mytsyk1.67511119113V. Kondratenko2.1011261172WAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123LAug 27 · 08:30K. Klymenko1.5311119113V. Kondratenko2.38991181LAug 27 · 06:30O. Ovsiienko1.5791111113V. Kondratenko2.25116561WAug 27 · 04:30V. Mukhin2.508115101V. Kondratenko1.5011711123LAug 24 · 11:35V. Kondratenko2.508121321M. Khalenko1.50111411113
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