TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12478104
Played Aug 23Finished
Oleh Stopin
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111141012114411
Volodymyr Varchenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:40 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
84 points played in total.
Set by set
6111141012114411
H2H Oleh Stopin 11–9 Volodymyr Varchenko Volodymyr Varchenko has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Varchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Stopin
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stopin 1114 vs Varchenko 1168
Varchenko
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stopin 0% vs Varchenko 20%
Varchenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stopin 20% vs Varchenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stopin -5 · Varchenko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Varchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStopin 2.10 / Varchenko 1.67
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Varchenko)+6.0pp
Setka Cup · #12478104
Stopin2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog24% won 15 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Varchenko1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite48% won 26 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it68% 21 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStopin4wins
AwayVarchenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVarchenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStopin75%3 of 4
AwayVarchenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stopin4Varchenko6n = 10Varchenko took 6 of 10
S2Stopin4Varchenko6n = 10Varchenko took 6 of 10
S3Stopin5Varchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Stopin4Varchenko3n = 7Stopin took 4 of 7
S5Stopin1Varchenko2n = 3Varchenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStopinVarchenkoS − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.938.4−1.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStopinVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 276 vs 98 / 22350.7%44%140 / 276 vs 98 / 223Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarchenkoStopin 2.10/Varchenko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.8%
Varchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Varchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 07:35O. Stopin—611101142V. Varchenko—114124113
LAug 16 · 10:05O. Stopin—11111011112V. Varchenko—841213133
LAug 2 · 08:20O. Stopin—8101181V. Varchenko—11128113
LJul 31 · 14:30O. Stopin—7850V. Varchenko—1111113
WJul 15 · 13:00O. Stopin—1111123V. Varchenko—99100
WJul 11 · 05:30O. Stopin—12911113V. Varchenko—1011951
LApr 26 · 07:35O. Stopin—941131V. Varchenko—11118113
LMar 29 · 13:10O. Stopin—91320V. Varchenko—1115113
WMar 22 · 16:10O. Stopin—6101211113V. Varchenko—111210762
WMar 1 · 16:10O. Stopin—1112783V. Varchenko—5101141
O. Stopin10
WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112LSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821WSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852LAug 29 · 11:50V. Mukhin1.221111113O. Stopin4.009440LAug 29 · 10:50O. Stopin1.83691141S. Semenets1.8311116113WAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830WAug 29 · 08:20O. Stopin2.251115143V. Stukalov1.57913120WAug 29 · 06:20O. Stopin2.5014118113D. Khavanskyi1.501271171
V. Varchenko10
LSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102LSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821LSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152WSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LAug 23 · 11:35V. Varchenko1.73491191S. Baranskyi2.0011116113WAug 23 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.508960V. Varchenko2.501111113LAug 23 · 08:35V. Varchenko2.389640S. Semenets1.531111113LAug 23 · 06:05V. Varchenko1.83101060Y. Korotin1.831212113LAug 22 · 11:30V. Varchenko3.2511751162V. Kondratenko1.33511118113
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