TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079150
Played Sep 5Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911116114811115
Volodymyr Varchenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Volodymyr Varchenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 68.8%
87 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 9–2 Volodymyr Varchenko Volodymyr Varchenko has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:36What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mukhin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-2 in 11
Mukhin
Correct
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1289 vs Varchenko 1155
Mukhin
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 40% vs Varchenko 60%
Varchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 60% vs Varchenko 40%
Mukhin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin -3 · Varchenko +1
Mukhin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Mukhin) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.44 / Varchenko 2.63
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Mukhin)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13079150
Mukhin1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 98 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it79% 73 of 93
Varchenko2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 14 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin8wins
AwayVarchenko2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMukhin leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin75%6 of 8
AwayVarchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin8Varchenko2n = 10Mukhin took 8 of 10
S2Mukhin6Varchenko4n = 10Mukhin took 6 of 10
S3Mukhin8Varchenko2n = 10Mukhin took 8 of 10
S4Mukhin4Varchenko3n = 7Mukhin took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinVarchenkoM − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.530.7+9.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 300 vs 98 / 22451%43.8%153 / 300 vs 98 / 224Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.44/Varchenko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin—911118113V. Varchenko—11641152
LAug 16 · 08:05V. Mukhin—14811962V. Varchenko—1211411113
WAug 5 · 16:30V. Mukhin—1111113V. Varchenko—8160
WAug 2 · 10:20V. Mukhin—1111113V. Varchenko—5740
LJul 31 · 18:00V. Mukhin—118891V. Varchenko—21111113
WJul 11 · 07:30V. Mukhin—15116113V. Varchenko—1361191
WJun 14 · 11:05V. Mukhin—11811113V. Varchenko—911261
WMay 9 · 07:30V. Mukhin—1111113V. Varchenko—4370
WMar 29 · 16:40V. Mukhin—111311113V. Varchenko—815661
WSep 28 · 08:05V. Mukhin—61311123V. Varchenko—11117101
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591WAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050
V. Varchenko10
LSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102LSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821WSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LAug 23 · 11:35V. Varchenko1.73491191S. Baranskyi2.0011116113WAug 23 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.508960V. Varchenko2.501111113LAug 23 · 08:35V. Varchenko2.389640S. Semenets1.531111113WAug 23 · 07:35O. Stopin2.10611101142V. Varchenko1.67114124113LAug 23 · 06:05V. Varchenko1.83101060Y. Korotin1.831212113LAug 22 · 11:30V. Varchenko3.2511751162V. Kondratenko1.33511118113
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