TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073295
Played Sep 4Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11611791112141311
Serhii Semenets
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 105 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 66.7%
105 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 23–14 Serhii Semenets Serhii Semenets has won 14 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Mukhin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-14 in 37
Mukhin
Correct
gap of 9 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1277 vs Semenets 1266
Mukhin
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 80% vs Semenets 60%
Mukhin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 80% vs Semenets 50%
Mukhin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +3 · Semenets +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Mukhin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.40 / Semenets 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Mukhin)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13073295
Mukhin1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 93 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it78% 69 of 88
Semenets2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 43 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin7wins
AwaySemenets3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMukhin leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin87.5%7 of 8
AwaySemenetsn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin8Semenets2n = 10Mukhin took 8 of 10
S2Mukhin7Semenets3n = 10Mukhin took 7 of 10
S3Mukhin9Semenets1n = 10Mukhin took 9 of 10
S4Mukhin2Semenets2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinSemenetsM − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.829.2+7.6per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 292 vs 415 / 82350.7%50.4%148 / 292 vs 415 / 823Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.40/Semenets 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 06:35V. Mukhin—1111113S. Semenets—6440
LAug 29 · 08:50V. Mukhin—76111252S. Semenets—1111710113
WAug 18 · 07:30V. Mukhin—1116113S. Semenets—51440
LAug 16 · 06:35V. Mukhin—81111962S. Semenets—118811113
WAug 6 · 07:30V. Mukhin—1111113S. Semenets—9830
LAug 5 · 13:30V. Mukhin—119491S. Semenets—51111113
WAug 2 · 07:20V. Mukhin—14711113S. Semenets—1211491
WJul 31 · 13:30V. Mukhin—1411113S. Semenets—12480
WJul 11 · 06:00V. Mukhin—1111113S. Semenets—7830
WJul 8 · 13:30V. Mukhin—1111113S. Semenets—6680
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591WAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050
S. Semenets10
LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113WSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121WSep 4 · 14:00S. Semenets2.259111111113D. Khavanskyi1.5711135882
Upcoming Matches
V. Mukhin
Nothing scheduled
S. Semenets
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