TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073250
Played Sep 4Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119118911311411
Yevhenii Korotin
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Korotin to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Yevhenii Korotin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 88 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Yevhenii Korotin at 62.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 3–4 Yevhenii Korotin Vitalii Mukhin has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:28What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Korotin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1274 vs Korotin 1263
Mukhin
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 80% vs Korotin 40%
Mukhin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 80% vs Korotin 40%
Mukhin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin -1 · Korotin -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Korotin) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Korotin form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 2.63 / Korotin 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Korotin)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13073250
Mukhin2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog26% won 20 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Korotin1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 17 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMukhin3wins
AwayKorotin4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKorotin leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin75%3 of 4
AwayKorotin100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin4Korotin3n = 7Mukhin took 4 of 7
S2Mukhin4Korotin3n = 7Mukhin took 4 of 7
S3Mukhin2Korotin5n = 7Korotin took 5 of 7
S4Mukhin1Korotin3n = 4Korotin took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMukhinKorotinM − KBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match31.734.6−2.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinKorotinBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 294 vs 96 / 19750.7%48.7%149 / 294 vs 96 / 197Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorotinMukhin 2.63/Korotin 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Korotin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Korotin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 5 · 18:00V. Mukhin—7980Y. Korotin—1111113
LJun 21 · 10:40V. Mukhin—5570Y. Korotin—1111113
LMar 29 · 10:40V. Mukhin—811341Y. Korotin—11511113
WMar 23 · 10:00V. Mukhin—111154113Y. Korotin—77111192
LMar 19 · 17:40V. Mukhin—11711862Y. Korotin—611311113
WOct 12 · 12:10V. Mukhin—1112563Y. Korotin—5101131
WSep 30 · 16:40V. Mukhin—1213113Y. Korotin—101110
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591WAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050
Y. Korotin10
LSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121LSep 4 · 16:00Y. Korotin2.253980D. Khavanskyi1.571111113WSep 4 · 14:30Y. Korotin3.50911811113S. Yakimenko1.2811911772WSep 4 · 12:30Y. Korotin1.831111113M. Khalenko1.835690LAug 30 · 16:40Y. Korotin1.917390V. Stukalov1.801111113LAug 30 · 15:10Y. Korotin2.7571080O. Mytsyk1.401112113WAug 30 · 13:40Y. Korotin1.73119118113M. Khalenko2.0091141162LAug 30 · 12:10Y. Korotin2.251110111242S. Baranskyi1.57712314113LAug 30 · 10:40Y. Korotin2.501161181K. Klymenko1.5091113113WAug 23 · 12:05Y. Korotin2.00131111113S. Semenets1.731191351
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