TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044090
Played Aug 30Finished
Yevhenii Korotin
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711311911––––
Vladyslav Stukalov
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Korotin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYevhenii Korotin above · Vladyslav Stukalov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 52 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Yevhenii Korotin at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Yevhenii Korotin 16–18 Vladyslav Stukalov Yevhenii Korotin has won 16 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:16What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stukalov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-18 in 34
Stukalov
Correct
gap of 2 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korotin 1277 vs Stukalov 1212
Korotin
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korotin 40% vs Stukalov 20%
Korotin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korotin 50% vs Stukalov 30%
Korotin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Korotin -1 · Stukalov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Korotin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stukalov form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorotin 1.91 / Stukalov 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Korotin)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13044090
Korotin1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 29 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back26% 9 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Stukalov1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 110 of 206
Up 2–0, closes it97% 61 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it81% 81 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKorotin5wins
AwayStukalov5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorotin80%4 of 5
AwayStukalov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korotin5Stukalov5n = 10split evenly
S2Korotin4Stukalov6n = 10Stukalov took 6 of 10
S3Korotin5Stukalov5n = 10split evenly
S4Korotin4Stukalov4n = 8split evenly
S5Korotin3Stukalov2n = 5Korotin took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKorotinStukalovK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.339.4+0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorotinStukalovBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 197 vs 404 / 80450.3%50.3%99 / 197 vs 404 / 804Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorotinKorotin 1.91/Stukalov 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Korotin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stukalov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 5 · 16:00Y. Korotin—10550V. Stukalov—1211113
LJun 21 · 14:40Y. Korotin—9151041V. Stukalov—111312113
WApr 28 · 10:40Y. Korotin—119138113V. Stukalov—611111172
WApr 19 · 17:10Y. Korotin—1111103V. Stukalov—1890
LApr 15 · 05:35Y. Korotin—811991V. Stukalov—11511113
WApr 14 · 05:30Y. Korotin—1171011113V. Stukalov—71112362
WApr 10 · 07:00Y. Korotin—61111113V. Stukalov—117951
LMar 31 · 16:40Y. Korotin—11761182V. Stukalov—911116113
LMar 22 · 13:40Y. Korotin—97131252V. Stukalov—11111110113
WMar 15 · 16:10Y. Korotin—116117113V. Stukalov—81111172
Y. Korotin10
WSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121LSep 4 · 16:00Y. Korotin2.253980D. Khavanskyi1.571111113WSep 4 · 14:30Y. Korotin3.50911811113S. Yakimenko1.2811911772WSep 4 · 12:30Y. Korotin1.831111113M. Khalenko1.835690LAug 30 · 15:10Y. Korotin2.7571080O. Mytsyk1.401112113WAug 30 · 13:40Y. Korotin1.73119118113M. Khalenko2.0091141162LAug 30 · 12:10Y. Korotin2.251110111242S. Baranskyi1.57712314113LAug 30 · 10:40Y. Korotin2.501161181K. Klymenko1.5091113113WAug 23 · 12:05Y. Korotin2.00131111113S. Semenets1.731191351
V. Stukalov10
LSep 7 · 08:20V. Stukalov2.5012119792O. Mytsyk1.501061111113WSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850LSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113WSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130LSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113LSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113LSep 3 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.611111113V. Stukalov2.206740WSep 3 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.8311512113S. Semenets1.839111061
Upcoming Matches
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V. Stukalov
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