TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079218
Played Sep 5Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
114711911911––
Oleh Stopin
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Stukalov to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Oleh Stopin below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Vladyslav Stukalov at 64.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 30–20 Oleh Stopin Oleh Stopin has won 20 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:36What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Stukalov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-20 in 50
Stukalov
Wrong
gap of 10 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1248 vs Stopin 1156
Stukalov
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 40% vs Stopin 60%
Stopin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 50% vs Stopin 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -3 · Stopin +1
Stukalov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Stukalov) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stopin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 1.53 / Stopin 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Stukalov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079218
Stukalov1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 111 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it97% 61 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it81% 82 of 101
Stopin2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog22% won 13 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back15% 5 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov6wins
AwayStopin4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStukalov leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov50%2 of 4
AwayStopin33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov4Stopin6n = 10Stopin took 6 of 10
S2Stukalov7Stopin3n = 10Stukalov took 7 of 10
S3Stukalov5Stopin5n = 10split evenly
S4Stukalov4Stopin4n = 8split evenly
S5Stukalov2Stopin1n = 3Stukalov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovStopinStukalov − StopinBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.336.6+4.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovStopinBasisWin rate · lifetime408 / 811 vs 144 / 27850.3%51.8%408 / 811 vs 144 / 278Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StukalovStukalov 1.53/Stopin 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Stukalov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stopin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov—117991O. Stopin—41111113
LAug 29 · 08:20V. Stukalov—913120O. Stopin—1115143
WAug 26 · 07:00V. Stukalov—1111113O. Stopin—5750
WJul 26 · 16:40V. Stukalov—91116113O. Stopin—1191471
WJun 27 · 10:30V. Stukalov—611127113O. Stopin—118101152
WApr 26 · 11:05V. Stukalov—111410113O. Stopin—5121251
WMar 22 · 12:40V. Stukalov—81111113O. Stopin—112691
LMar 13 · 08:00V. Stukalov—111156112O. Stopin—771111133
LMar 8 · 14:10V. Stukalov—6118111O. Stopin—11311133
WMar 1 · 14:10V. Stukalov—971111113O. Stopin—11116362
V. Stukalov10
WSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850LSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113WSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130LSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113LSep 3 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.611111113V. Stukalov2.206740WSep 3 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.8311512113S. Semenets1.839111061WSep 3 · 07:35V. Korniichuk1.3671111882V. Stukalov3.00119611113WSep 3 · 06:05V. Stukalov1.2011911113S. Osipov4.33611561
O. Stopin10
WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112LSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852LAug 29 · 11:50V. Mukhin1.221111113O. Stopin4.009440LAug 29 · 10:50O. Stopin1.83691141S. Semenets1.8311116113WAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830WAug 29 · 08:20O. Stopin2.251115143V. Stukalov1.57913120WAug 29 · 06:20O. Stopin2.5014118113D. Khavanskyi1.501271171WAug 26 · 10:30O. Miklukha2.00771371O. Stopin1.73111111113
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