TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079091
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleh Stopin
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11981112101618115
Vadym Kucheriavyi
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeVadym Kucheriavyi to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleh Stopin above · Vadym Kucheriavyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 16-18
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 111 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Vadym Kucheriavyi at 70.9%
111 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Stopin 1–3 Vadym Kucheriavyi Oleh Stopin has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stopin 1172 vs Kucheriavyi 1197
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stopin 60% vs Kucheriavyi 40%
Stopin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stopin 50% vs Kucheriavyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stopin -2 · Kucheriavyi -3
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kucheriavyi) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kucheriavyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStopin 3.25 / Kucheriavyi 1.33
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Kucheriavyi)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13079091
Stopin3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 17 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Kucheriavyi1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite45% won 23 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it60% 12 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStopin1wins
AwayKucheriavyi3wins
3 of 4 to a deciderKucheriavyi leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStopin25%1 of 4
AwayKucheriavyin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stopin4Kucheriavyi0n = 4Stopin took 4 of 4
S2Stopin1Kucheriavyi3n = 4Kucheriavyi took 3 of 4
S3Stopin1Kucheriavyi3n = 4Kucheriavyi took 3 of 4
S4Stopin1Kucheriavyi3n = 4Kucheriavyi took 3 of 4
S5Stopin1Kucheriavyi2n = 3Kucheriavyi took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStopinKucheriavyiS − KBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match43.046.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStopinKucheriavyiBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 281 vs 49 / 11952%41.2%146 / 281 vs 49 / 119Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KucheriavyiStopin 3.25/Kucheriavyi 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.1%
Kucheriavyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stopin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin—1181216113V. Kucheriavyi—911101852
LAug 16 · 07:35O. Stopin—11951192V. Kucheriavyi—611117113
LJul 26 · 13:10O. Stopin—115651V. Kucheriavyi—51111113
LJun 27 · 07:00O. Stopin—11116862V. Kucheriavyi—951111113
O. Stopin10
WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112LSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821WSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113LAug 29 · 11:50V. Mukhin1.221111113O. Stopin4.009440LAug 29 · 10:50O. Stopin1.83691141S. Semenets1.8311116113WAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830WAug 29 · 08:20O. Stopin2.251115143V. Stukalov1.57913120WAug 29 · 06:20O. Stopin2.5014118113D. Khavanskyi1.501271171WAug 26 · 10:30O. Miklukha2.00771371O. Stopin1.73111111113
V. Kucheriavyi10
WSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102WSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113LSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020LSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113LAug 22 · 11:00V. Kucheriavyi1.61118871S. Semenets2.2051111113LAug 22 · 09:00S. Baranskyi2.2511119113V. Kucheriavyi1.57791161LAug 22 · 08:00V. Kucheriavyi2.0071070V. Kondratenko1.731112113WAug 22 · 07:00V. Stukalov1.73115991V. Kucheriavyi2.0051111113WAug 22 · 05:30V. Kucheriavyi1.53411612113V. Varchenko2.38117111092LAug 16 · 11:35V. Kucheriavyi1.4011511572M. Khalenko2.75311911113
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