TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12440522
Played Aug 16Finished
Vadym Kucheriavyi
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113511119511711
Mykhailo Khalenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:07 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeVadym Kucheriavyi to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVadym Kucheriavyi above · Mykhailo Khalenko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 84 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Vadym Kucheriavyi at 60.8%
84 points played in total.
H2H Vadym Kucheriavyi 3–2 Mykhailo Khalenko Mykhailo Khalenko has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:07What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucheriavyi 1269 vs Khalenko 1289
Khalenko
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucheriavyi 60% vs Khalenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucheriavyi 40% vs Khalenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucheriavyi -1 · Khalenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kucheriavyi) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khalenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucheriavyi 1.40 / Khalenko 2.75
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kucheriavyi)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12440522
Kucheriavyi1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 20 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it67% 12 of 18
Khalenko2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 56 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back30% 19 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKucheriavyi3wins
AwayKhalenko2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKucheriavyi leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKucheriavyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKhalenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucheriavyi2Khalenko3n = 5Khalenko took 3 of 5
S2Kucheriavyi3Khalenko2n = 5Kucheriavyi took 3 of 5
S3Kucheriavyi3Khalenko2n = 5Kucheriavyi took 3 of 5
S4Kucheriavyi3Khalenko1n = 4Kucheriavyi took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKucheriavyiKhalenkoKucheriavyi − KhalenkoBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.435.6+1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucheriavyiKhalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 119 vs 168 / 35041.2%48%49 / 119 vs 168 / 350Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KucheriavyiKucheriavyi 1.40/Khalenko 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.3%
Kucheriavyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Khalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 16 · 11:35V. Kucheriavyi—11511572M. Khalenko—311911113
WAug 1 · 11:00V. Kucheriavyi—101112113M. Khalenko—1271051
WMay 9 · 11:00V. Kucheriavyi—11118113M. Khalenko—591171
WMay 31 · 12:20V. Kucheriavyi—41111113M. Khalenko—117951
LFeb 8 · 09:20V. Kucheriavyi—81170M. Khalenko—1113113
V. Kucheriavyi10
WSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102WSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113LSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020LSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113LSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852LAug 22 · 11:00V. Kucheriavyi1.61118871S. Semenets2.2051111113LAug 22 · 09:00S. Baranskyi2.2511119113V. Kucheriavyi1.57791161LAug 22 · 08:00V. Kucheriavyi2.0071070V. Kondratenko1.731112113WAug 22 · 07:00V. Stukalov1.73115991V. Kucheriavyi2.0051111113WAug 22 · 05:30V. Kucheriavyi1.53411612113V. Varchenko2.38117111092
M. Khalenko10
WSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 15:30S. Yakimenko1.8311611552M. Khalenko1.83711911113LSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151LSep 4 · 12:30Y. Korotin1.831111113M. Khalenko1.835690WSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113WSep 3 · 10:35S. Semenets2.20512761M. Khalenko1.61111011113LSep 3 · 09:05V. Korniichuk1.281111113M. Khalenko3.509970WSep 3 · 07:05S. Osipov2.7511811842M. Khalenko1.40811811113WSep 3 · 05:05D. Khavanskyi1.446260M. Khalenko2.631111113
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