TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472064
Played Aug 22Finished
Vadym Kucheriavyi
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012711––––
Vasily Kondratenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeVasily Kondratenko to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVadym Kucheriavyi above · Vasily Kondratenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 58 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Vasily Kondratenko at 56.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H Vadym Kucheriavyi 4–7 Vasily Kondratenko Vadym Kucheriavyi has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:02What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kondratenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Kondratenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucheriavyi 1271 vs Kondratenko 1257
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucheriavyi 60% vs Kondratenko 20%
Kucheriavyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucheriavyi 50% vs Kondratenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucheriavyi +2 · Kondratenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kondratenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kondratenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucheriavyi 2.00 / Kondratenko 1.73
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kondratenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472064
Kucheriavyi2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 4 of 12
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Kondratenko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 79 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it82% 55 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKucheriavyi4wins
AwayKondratenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKondratenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKucheriavyi75%3 of 4
AwayKondratenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucheriavyi4Kondratenko6n = 10Kondratenko took 6 of 10
S2Kucheriavyi5Kondratenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kucheriavyi4Kondratenko6n = 10Kondratenko took 6 of 10
S4Kucheriavyi2Kondratenko5n = 7Kondratenko took 5 of 7
S5Kucheriavyi2Kondratenko1n = 3Kucheriavyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKucheriavyiKondratenkoKucheriavyi − KondratenkoBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.737.6−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucheriavyiKondratenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 117 vs 272 / 60241.9%45.2%49 / 117 vs 272 / 602Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KondratenkoKucheriavyi 2.00/Kondratenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Kondratenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kondratenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 08:00V. Kucheriavyi—71070V. Kondratenko—1112113
WJul 26 · 17:10V. Kucheriavyi—71111113V. Kondratenko—114971
LJun 7 · 14:40V. Kucheriavyi—381151V. Kondratenko—11119113
LMay 30 · 05:30V. Kucheriavyi—121551V. Kondratenko—101111113
LMay 9 · 07:00V. Kucheriavyi—711713102V. Kondratenko—1161111123
WOct 26 · 11:50V. Kucheriavyi—1111113V. Kondratenko—9840
WOct 19 · 07:50V. Kucheriavyi—119117123V. Kondratenko—511511102
LSep 28 · 10:20V. Kucheriavyi—111851V. Kondratenko—1191193
WSep 21 · 10:20V. Kucheriavyi—111194113V. Kondratenko—73111172
LJul 13 · 06:50V. Kucheriavyi—8490V. Kondratenko—1111113
V. Kucheriavyi10
WSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102WSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113LSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020LSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113LSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852LAug 22 · 11:00V. Kucheriavyi1.61118871S. Semenets2.2051111113LAug 22 · 09:00S. Baranskyi2.2511119113V. Kucheriavyi1.57791161WAug 22 · 07:00V. Stukalov1.73115991V. Kucheriavyi2.0051111113WAug 22 · 05:30V. Kucheriavyi1.53411612113V. Varchenko2.38117111092LAug 16 · 11:35V. Kucheriavyi1.4011511572M. Khalenko2.75311911113
V. Kondratenko10
LAug 28 · 09:35K. Klymenko1.509101111113V. Kondratenko2.5011127482LAug 28 · 08:35V. Kondratenko2.00813100S. Skhabitskiy1.731115123LAug 28 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.2071111113V. Kondratenko1.61116481LAug 28 · 06:05V. Kondratenko2.20116691O. Mytsyk1.6181111113LAug 27 · 11:00O. Mytsyk1.67511119113V. Kondratenko2.1011261172WAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123LAug 27 · 08:30K. Klymenko1.5311119113V. Kondratenko2.38991181LAug 27 · 06:30O. Ovsiienko1.5791111113V. Kondratenko2.25116561WAug 27 · 04:30V. Mukhin2.508115101V. Kondratenko1.5011711123LAug 24 · 11:35V. Kondratenko2.508121321M. Khalenko1.50111411113
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