TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472269
Played Aug 22Finished
Vadym Kucheriavyi
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111176111210119
Volodymyr Varchenko
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVadym Kucheriavyi above · Volodymyr Varchenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 92 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Volodymyr Varchenko at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Vadym Kucheriavyi 1–3 Volodymyr Varchenko Vadym Kucheriavyi has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:19What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kucheriavyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Varchenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucheriavyi 1269 vs Varchenko 1207
Kucheriavyi
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucheriavyi 40% vs Varchenko 60%
Varchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucheriavyi 30% vs Varchenko 70%
Varchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucheriavyi -2 · Varchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kucheriavyi) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucheriavyi 1.53 / Varchenko 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Kucheriavyi)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472269
Kucheriavyi1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 21 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it63% 12 of 19
Varchenko2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 13 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKucheriavyi1wins
AwayVarchenko3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderVarchenko leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKucheriavyin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVarchenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucheriavyi1Varchenko3n = 4Varchenko took 3 of 4
S2Kucheriavyi1Varchenko3n = 4Varchenko took 3 of 4
S3Kucheriavyi2Varchenko2n = 4split evenly
S4Kucheriavyi2Varchenko1n = 3Kucheriavyi took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKucheriavyiVarchenkoK − VBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match35.541.0−5.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucheriavyiVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 114 vs 95 / 21341.2%44.6%47 / 114 vs 95 / 213Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.435.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KucheriavyiKucheriavyi 1.53/Varchenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Kucheriavyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kucheriavyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 16 · 06:05V. Kucheriavyi—6930V. Varchenko—1111113
LJun 14 · 10:05V. Kucheriavyi—119612132V. Varchenko—5111110153
LMay 9 · 05:30V. Kucheriavyi—931161V. Varchenko—11119113
WApr 19 · 16:40V. Kucheriavyi—91113113V. Varchenko—1171181
V. Kucheriavyi10
WSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102WSep 5 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.8312711692V. Kucheriavyi1.831011511113LSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020LSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113LSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852LAug 22 · 11:00V. Kucheriavyi1.61118871S. Semenets2.2051111113LAug 22 · 09:00S. Baranskyi2.2511119113V. Kucheriavyi1.57791161LAug 22 · 08:00V. Kucheriavyi2.0071070V. Kondratenko1.731112113WAug 22 · 07:00V. Stukalov1.73115991V. Kucheriavyi2.0051111113LAug 16 · 11:35V. Kucheriavyi1.4011511572M. Khalenko2.75311911113
V. Varchenko10
LSep 5 · 12:05V. Kucheriavyi1.61411411123V. Varchenko2.20119118102LSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821LSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152WSep 5 · 05:35V. Stukalov2.001012471V. Varchenko1.73121011113LAug 23 · 11:35V. Varchenko1.73491191S. Baranskyi2.0011116113WAug 23 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.508960V. Varchenko2.501111113LAug 23 · 08:35V. Varchenko2.389640S. Semenets1.531111113WAug 23 · 07:35O. Stopin2.10611101142V. Varchenko1.67114124113LAug 23 · 06:05V. Varchenko1.83101060Y. Korotin1.831212113
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