TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031623
Played Aug 28Finished
Vasily Kondratenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
81113151012––––
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSergii Skhabitskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Kondratenko above · Sergii Skhabitskiy below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 69 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Sergii Skhabitskiy at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Kondratenko 48–41 Sergii Skhabitskiy Sergii Skhabitskiy has won 41 of their 89 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skhabitskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-41 in 89
Kondratenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kondratenko 1248 vs Skhabitskiy 1469
Skhabitskiy
Correct
both rated, 221 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kondratenko 20% vs Skhabitskiy 80%
Skhabitskiy
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kondratenko 30% vs Skhabitskiy 70%
Skhabitskiy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kondratenko -3 · Skhabitskiy +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Skhabitskiy) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skhabitskiy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKondratenko 2.00 / Skhabitskiy 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Skhabitskiy)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13031623
Kondratenko2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog29% won 32 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back14% 9 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Skhabitskiy1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 110 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it92% 57 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it72% 81 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKondratenko3wins
AwaySkhabitskiy7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkhabitskiy leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKondratenko50%2 of 4
AwaySkhabitskiy83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kondratenko4Skhabitskiy6n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S2Kondratenko4Skhabitskiy6n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S3Kondratenko4Skhabitskiy6n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S4Kondratenko3Skhabitskiy5n = 8Skhabitskiy took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKondratenkoSkhabitskiyK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.539.3−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKondratenkoSkhabitskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 600 vs 494 / 110045%44.9%270 / 600 vs 494 / 1100Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkhabitskiyKondratenko 2.00/Skhabitskiy 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Skhabitskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 08:35V. Kondratenko—813100S. Skhabitskiy—1115123
LAug 21 · 11:35V. Kondratenko—1135101S. Skhabitskiy—61111123
LAug 12 · 06:35V. Kondratenko—910111192S. Skhabitskiy—111297113
LAug 9 · 13:00V. Kondratenko—611941S. Skhabitskiy—11911113
LJul 24 · 09:30V. Kondratenko—712681S. Skhabitskiy—111011113
WJul 15 · 11:30V. Kondratenko—118711123S. Skhabitskiy—811119102
WJul 8 · 11:05V. Kondratenko—1111113S. Skhabitskiy—3490
LJul 3 · 05:00V. Kondratenko—1181071S. Skhabitskiy—71112113
LJul 2 · 12:05V. Kondratenko—91211101S. Skhabitskiy—11147123
WJul 1 · 16:30V. Kondratenko—91111113S. Skhabitskiy—118831
V. Kondratenko10
LAug 28 · 09:35K. Klymenko1.509101111113V. Kondratenko2.5011127482LAug 28 · 07:35V. Stukalov2.2071111113V. Kondratenko1.61116481LAug 28 · 06:05V. Kondratenko2.20116691O. Mytsyk1.6181111113LAug 27 · 11:00O. Mytsyk1.67511119113V. Kondratenko2.1011261172WAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123LAug 27 · 08:30K. Klymenko1.5311119113V. Kondratenko2.38991181LAug 27 · 06:30O. Ovsiienko1.5791111113V. Kondratenko2.25116561WAug 27 · 04:30V. Mukhin2.508115101V. Kondratenko1.5011711123LAug 24 · 11:35V. Kondratenko2.508121321M. Khalenko1.50111411113LAug 24 · 09:35V. Korniichuk2.001111113V. Kondratenko1.736470
S. Skhabitskiy10
WAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113LAug 31 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy3.2512311762A. Martyniuk1.331011911113LAug 31 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5099130E. Populovskyi1.501111153WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.7511411113A. Kovalenko1.40511391WAug 31 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.2513117123S. Solomko1.5711611101LAug 30 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.001111113S. Skhabitskiy1.737470LAug 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.8371111113S. Skhabitskiy1.83119831LAug 30 · 16:00B. Zaika1.441011811113S. Skhabitskiy2.6312511782WAug 30 · 14:00O. Ovsiienko2.633990S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:00A. Kurtenko1.441111113S. Skhabitskiy2.637960
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