TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043951
Played Aug 30Finished
Andrii Kurtenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119116––––
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:37 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kurtenko to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kurtenko above · Sergii Skhabitskiy below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Andrii Kurtenko at 65.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kurtenko 39–19 Sergii Skhabitskiy Sergii Skhabitskiy has won 19 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:37What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kurtenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-19 in 58
Kurtenko
Correct
gap of 20 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1521 vs Skhabitskiy 1428
Kurtenko
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 60% vs Skhabitskiy 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 60% vs Skhabitskiy 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko +1 · Skhabitskiy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kurtenko) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skhabitskiy form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 1.44 / Skhabitskiy 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Kurtenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13043951
Kurtenko1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 153 of 257
Up 2–0, closes it90% 91 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it80% 118 of 148
Skhabitskiy2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 111 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back23% 33 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurtenko7wins
AwaySkhabitskiy3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKurtenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenko80%4 of 5
AwaySkhabitskiy40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko5Skhabitskiy5n = 10split evenly
S2Kurtenko8Skhabitskiy2n = 10Kurtenko took 8 of 10
S3Kurtenko5Skhabitskiy5n = 10split evenly
S4Kurtenko4Skhabitskiy5n = 9Skhabitskiy took 5 of 9
S5Kurtenko3Skhabitskiy1n = 4Kurtenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurtenkoSkhabitskiyK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.038.3+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoSkhabitskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 632 vs 489 / 110053%44.5%335 / 632 vs 489 / 1100Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoKurtenko 1.44/Skhabitskiy 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Kurtenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kurtenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 07:20A. Kurtenko—8111111S. Skhabitskiy—11137113
WAug 19 · 12:00A. Kurtenko—91111113S. Skhabitskiy—119581
WAug 14 · 10:00A. Kurtenko—139117113S. Skhabitskiy—111181152
LAug 10 · 11:50A. Kurtenko—411791S. Skhabitskiy—11911113
WAug 3 · 12:20A. Kurtenko—11119113S. Skhabitskiy—471171
WJul 13 · 11:50A. Kurtenko—11118113S. Skhabitskiy—851151
WJul 12 · 15:00A. Kurtenko—511115123S. Skhabitskiy—116911102
LJul 9 · 05:50A. Kurtenko—11147482S. Skhabitskiy—8121111113
WJul 8 · 05:05A. Kurtenko—1111113S. Skhabitskiy—8750
WJul 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko—911911113S. Skhabitskiy—11711672
A. Kurtenko10
WSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.571171163D. Patalakha2.25911621LSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.831112651S. Solomko1.83131011113LSep 5 · 12:00A. Kurtenko3.5011381272F. Voinarovskyi1.286111110113LSep 3 · 11:30A. Kurtenko1.807111131S. Solomko1.9111110153LSep 3 · 09:30I. Emets1.53111111113A. Kurtenko2.38133561LSep 3 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.6781111113A. Kurtenko2.10114571WSep 3 · 06:30A. Kurtenko1.911111133E. Populovskyi1.8058110LSep 3 · 05:30D. Khairov1.40111313113A. Kurtenko2.753151151
S. Skhabitskiy10
WAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113LAug 31 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy3.2512311762A. Martyniuk1.331011911113LAug 31 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5099130E. Populovskyi1.501111153WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.7511411113A. Kovalenko1.40511391WAug 31 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.2513117123S. Solomko1.5711611101LAug 30 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.001111113S. Skhabitskiy1.737470LAug 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.8371111113S. Skhabitskiy1.83119831LAug 30 · 16:00B. Zaika1.441011811113S. Skhabitskiy2.6312511782WAug 30 · 14:00O. Ovsiienko2.633990S. Skhabitskiy1.441111113LAug 28 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.6191S. Skhabitskiy2.2030
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