TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13066719
Played Sep 3Finished
Ihor Emets
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113113115116––
Andrii Kurtenko
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIhor Emets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Emets above · Andrii Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Ihor Emets at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Emets 8–11 Andrii Kurtenko Ihor Emets has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:38What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Emets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Kurtenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Emets 1485 vs Kurtenko 1458
Emets
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Emets 40% vs Kurtenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Emets 40% vs Kurtenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Emets +1 · Kurtenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Emets) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Emets form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEmets 1.53 / Kurtenko 2.38
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Emets)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13066719
Emets1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 73 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it80% 53 of 66
Kurtenko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 66 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEmets5wins
AwayKurtenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEmets60%3 of 5
AwayKurtenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Emets5Kurtenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Emets5Kurtenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Emets3Kurtenko7n = 10Kurtenko took 7 of 10
S4Emets6Kurtenko2n = 8Emets took 6 of 8
S5Emets1Kurtenko2n = 3Kurtenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricEmetsKurtenkoE − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.2+2.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEmetsKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime256 / 505 vs 337 / 64050.7%52.7%256 / 505 vs 337 / 640Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
EmetsEmets 1.53/Kurtenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.4%
Emets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Emets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 10 · 08:20I. Emets—8111111113A. Kurtenko—11137682
WMar 5 · 11:50I. Emets—11118113A. Kurtenko—691191
WMay 26 · 09:35I. Emets—11911133A. Kurtenko—9115111
LMay 22 · 07:20I. Emets—9490A. Kurtenko—1111113
LMay 8 · 09:00I. Emets—11621192A. Kurtenko—111115113
LApr 22 · 06:00I. Emets—1111712102A. Kurtenko—931114123
WApr 17 · 04:30I. Emets—91111113A. Kurtenko—113371
LMar 10 · 06:35I. Emets—410120A. Kurtenko—1112143
WFeb 21 · 11:30I. Emets—11119113A. Kurtenko—991151
LFeb 18 · 11:40I. Emets—1011961A. Kurtenko—12611113
I. Emets10
WSep 3 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.53117651I. Emets2.3851111113WSep 3 · 08:30I. Emets1.7341111113E. Populovskyi2.00114581LSep 3 · 07:00I. Emets1.6710750D. Khairov2.101211113LSep 3 · 05:00I. Emets1.501178101S. Solomko2.5051111123LSep 2 · 10:30A. Kotiash1.831111711113I. Emets1.8381311572WSep 2 · 09:30I. Emets1.441111113A. Troyan2.636860WSep 2 · 08:30I. Emets1.831211113D. Khairov1.8310380LSep 2 · 07:00I. Emets1.9167121182V. Kolesnykov1.801111104113LSep 2 · 05:00I. Emets2.003990O. Volynets1.731111113WAug 31 · 10:30O. Volynets1.571411611112I. Emets2.251261113133
A. Kurtenko10
WSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.571171163D. Patalakha2.25911621LSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.831112651S. Solomko1.83131011113LSep 5 · 12:00A. Kurtenko3.5011381272F. Voinarovskyi1.286111110113LSep 3 · 11:30A. Kurtenko1.807111131S. Solomko1.9111110153LSep 3 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.6781111113A. Kurtenko2.10114571WSep 3 · 06:30A. Kurtenko1.911111133E. Populovskyi1.8058110LSep 3 · 05:30D. Khairov1.40111313113A. Kurtenko2.753151151LSep 2 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.7311711123A. Kurtenko2.006115101
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