TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13066942
Played Sep 3Finished
Ihor Emets
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411114115118––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIhor Emets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Emets above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 65 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ihor Emets at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Emets 10–11 Eduard Populovskyi Ihor Emets has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Emets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-11 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Emets 1475 vs Populovskyi 1412
Emets
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Emets 40% vs Populovskyi 20%
Emets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Emets 30% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Emets -3 · Populovskyi -2
Emets
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Emets) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEmets 1.73 / Populovskyi 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Emets)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13066942
Emets1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 73 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it80% 53 of 66
Populovskyi2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog33% won 53 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back20% 20 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeEmets5wins
AwayPopulovskyi5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEmets80%4 of 5
AwayPopulovskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Emets5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Emets4Populovskyi6n = 10Populovskyi took 6 of 10
S3Emets6Populovskyi4n = 10Emets took 6 of 10
S4Emets1Populovskyi4n = 5Populovskyi took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricEmetsPopulovskyiE − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.236.0−1.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEmetsPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 504 vs 339 / 69150.6%49.1%255 / 504 vs 339 / 691Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
EmetsEmets 1.73/Populovskyi 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Emets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Emets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 29 · 11:05I. Emets—1112113E. Populovskyi—91090
LJul 23 · 09:05I. Emets—8890E. Populovskyi—1111113
WJun 5 · 11:05I. Emets—1111113E. Populovskyi—7710
LApr 24 · 09:05I. Emets—421481E. Populovskyi—111112113
WApr 20 · 05:35I. Emets—1311104113E. Populovskyi—117121192
LApr 6 · 05:35I. Emets—7970E. Populovskyi—1111113
LOct 24 · 11:30I. Emets—177551E. Populovskyi—151111113
WOct 10 · 08:30I. Emets—9101111113E. Populovskyi—11125582
WSep 26 · 10:30I. Emets—1114113E. Populovskyi—71260
LJul 11 · 10:30I. Emets—361181E. Populovskyi—11119113
I. Emets10
WSep 3 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.53117651I. Emets2.3851111113WSep 3 · 09:30I. Emets1.53111111113A. Kurtenko2.38133561LSep 3 · 07:00I. Emets1.6710750D. Khairov2.101211113LSep 3 · 05:00I. Emets1.501178101S. Solomko2.5051111123LSep 2 · 10:30A. Kotiash1.831111711113I. Emets1.8381311572WSep 2 · 09:30I. Emets1.441111113A. Troyan2.636860WSep 2 · 08:30I. Emets1.831211113D. Khairov1.8310380LSep 2 · 07:00I. Emets1.9167121182V. Kolesnykov1.801111104113LSep 2 · 05:00I. Emets2.003990O. Volynets1.731111113WAug 31 · 10:30O. Volynets1.571411611112I. Emets2.251261113133
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.