TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072946
Played Sep 4Finished
Maksym Stetsenko
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111196111113––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Stetsenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 78 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 71.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Stetsenko 0–8 Eduard Populovskyi Maksym Stetsenko has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:39What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-8 in 8
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stetsenko 1373 vs Populovskyi 1411
Populovskyi
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stetsenko 40% vs Populovskyi 20%
Stetsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stetsenko 60% vs Populovskyi 30%
Stetsenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stetsenko -2 · Populovskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Populovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStetsenko 3.40 / Populovskyi 1.30
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Populovskyi)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13072946
Stetsenko3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 98 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back25% 30 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 62
Populovskyi1.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 100 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it84% 75 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStetsenko0wins
AwayPopulovskyi8wins
3 of 8 to a deciderPopulovskyi leads 8–0, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStetsenkon = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayPopulovskyi100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stetsenko0Populovskyi8n = 8Populovskyi took 8 of 8
S2Stetsenko4Populovskyi4n = 8split evenly
S3Stetsenko2Populovskyi6n = 8Populovskyi took 6 of 8
S4Stetsenko1Populovskyi3n = 4Populovskyi took 3 of 4
S5Stetsenko0Populovskyi3n = 3Populovskyi took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away450%
These 8 meetings
MetricStetsenkoPopulovskyiS − PBasisWins08−8in 8 meetingsFirst set08−8of 8Avg pointsper match29.440.9−11.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStetsenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 832 vs 340 / 69452.4%49%436 / 832 vs 340 / 694Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiStetsenko 3.40/Populovskyi 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.7%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 27 · 07:20M. Stetsenko—71111742E. Populovskyi—119711113
LAug 24 · 07:20M. Stetsenko—5970E. Populovskyi—1111113
LAug 7 · 06:00M. Stetsenko—813531E. Populovskyi—111111113
LAug 6 · 12:50M. Stetsenko—81160E. Populovskyi—1113113
LJul 31 · 04:30M. Stetsenko—41161152E. Populovskyi—119119113
LJul 12 · 12:30M. Stetsenko—5780E. Populovskyi—1111113
LJul 9 · 06:20M. Stetsenko—91111792E. Populovskyi—119711113
LJun 22 · 09:50M. Stetsenko—5830E. Populovskyi—1111113
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 7 · 05:50V. Korniichuk2.7511470M. Stetsenko1.401311113WSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.571171091M. Stetsenko2.2511112113LSep 6 · 11:20S. Solomko1.251211113M. Stetsenko3.7510670LSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 05:50D. Patalakha1.61781171M. Stetsenko2.2011114113LSep 4 · 11:05M. Stetsenko2.6368120K. Klymenko1.441111143LSep 4 · 09:35M. Stetsenko1.73611831V. Melnykov2.0011311113LSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113WSep 4 · 06:35M. Stetsenko1.4411714113O. Mytsyk2.636111241
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 3 · 11:00D. Khairov1.734111031E. Populovskyi2.0011612113
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