TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067167
Played Sep 3Finished
Dmytro Khairov
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111161012311––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Khairov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Khairov above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 68 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Dmytro Khairov at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Khairov 4–7 Eduard Populovskyi Dmytro Khairov has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Khairov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khairov 1540 vs Populovskyi 1394
Khairov
Wrong
both rated, 146 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khairov 80% vs Populovskyi 20%
Khairov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khairov 50% vs Populovskyi 30%
Khairov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khairov +4 · Populovskyi -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Khairov) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhairov 1.73 / Populovskyi 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Khairov)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067167
Khairov1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 55 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it80% 39 of 49
Populovskyi2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog33% won 53 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back20% 20 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhairov4wins
AwayPopulovskyi6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPopulovskyi leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhairov100%3 of 3
AwayPopulovskyi85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khairov3Populovskyi7n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S2Khairov6Populovskyi4n = 10Khairov took 6 of 10
S3Khairov5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Khairov2Populovskyi6n = 8Populovskyi took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhairovPopulovskyiK − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.638.0−3.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhairovPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 422 vs 339 / 69346.5%48.9%196 / 422 vs 339 / 693Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhairovKhairov 1.73/Populovskyi 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.1%
Khairov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 09:50D. Khairov—11117113E. Populovskyi—681191
WAug 23 · 09:50D. Khairov—128135113E. Populovskyi—1011111162
LAug 17 · 08:35D. Khairov—4780E. Populovskyi—1111113
LAug 15 · 19:00D. Khairov—10111041E. Populovskyi—12912113
WJul 29 · 08:05D. Khairov—1111113E. Populovskyi—2890
LMar 30 · 11:00D. Khairov—5911121E. Populovskyi—11117143
LMar 20 · 09:05D. Khairov—561161E. Populovskyi—11118113
LMar 19 · 05:30D. Khairov—8111071E. Populovskyi—11412113
LMar 2 · 07:05D. Khairov—1011461E. Populovskyi—12911113
WFeb 23 · 12:35D. Khairov—41211113E. Populovskyi—1110871
D. Khairov10
WSep 7 · 05:30D. Khairov1.502011113S. Solomko2.5018880WSep 3 · 09:00O. Osadchyi1.737410D. Khairov2.001111113WSep 3 · 08:00D. Khairov1.50151146113S. Solomko2.50138111142WSep 3 · 07:00I. Emets1.6710750D. Khairov2.101211113WSep 3 · 05:30D. Khairov1.40111313113A. Kurtenko2.753151151LSep 2 · 11:00V. Kolesnykov2.2551111113D. Khairov1.57119441LSep 2 · 10:00O. Volynets1.5381111113D. Khairov2.38116951LSep 2 · 08:30I. Emets1.831211113D. Khairov1.8310380WSep 2 · 06:30A. Troyan1.611181211102D. Khairov2.20711149123LSep 2 · 04:30A. Kotiash1.50155811113D. Khairov2.50131111692
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
Upcoming Matches
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E. Populovskyi
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